Monday, December 24, 2018

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 24

The selling has continued as expected, making today the worst Christmas Eve trading ever and possibly making this the worst December ever as well as the markets are all officially in bear market territory, the first one since 2007. It's interesting everyone is trying to rationalize what is causing the plunge since there are a multitude of factors. But I think the most simple explanation is that fact that the markets are predicting a recession soon. Just look at oil prices, it has plunged -45% in just 2 months! If a recession is indeed coming then we will see oil prices down in the 20's.

Bear markets have been non-existent in the US for the last 10 years so many people haven't even seen one. The average drop during a bear market is -30% and they last on average 13 months. The last bear market we had was in 2007 and prices plunged 57% then and took 49 months to recover. How long will this one last is anyone's guess but going just by wave measurement, this first leg has a target of 2250 if it is a traditional 5 wave structure. In the long run, I think a drop to the 1600-1800 is reasonable and a good place to load up for the long term. I will be wiring my passive funds into my trading account in the next few days and start trading the counter-rallies. I guess this is my Christmas present since I have only been long silver for the last few months :)

Merry Christmas!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

No comments:

Post a Comment