Thursday, June 23, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23

The market rallied substantially today in anticipation of a favorable outcome to the Brexit vote. At the same time, there is now a 5 count completed from the 2050 low which implies a coming correction. While the market closed above the Trend Average, a bearish wave to the 2025 level would be ideal. Only if the market is able to go above 2120 will the short term bearish bias will be eliminated.

As of the time of this post, the "Brexit" side has a sizable early lead and equity futures are selling off. My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.

I was checking on Zillow the price of my house and it has gone up almost 50% in 4 years. This would have never been possible had rates been at a normal level, instead these ultra low interest rates have fueled a rally in assets like homes and equities and unfortunately (or fortunately if you have been building capital) there will be a wake up call sooner than later. I think a good 50% correction from whenever the top is for the wave structure that started in 2009 would reset the currently artificially boosted market. Also, a good 25-35% correction in house prices would be great too as I'd like to buy a second home :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics

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