Thursday, March 31, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 31

The correction continued today but a higher high should come once the short term oscillators are reset. As it is, the SP500 managed to close this quarter with a gain and the DJIA made its biggest quarterly reversal since 1933. It's too early to tell what sort of pullback we will eventually get for the wave structure that started at 1810 but this strong move in the last 6 weeks points to the beginning of a larger bullish wave to new ATH with or without a correction. I think the "true" top for the entire rally from 2009 will come after a new President is sworn in. Given the high probability that it will be either Hilary or Trump, we should get a recession and much deeper sell off to coincide with their Presidency. A recession and a sell off because of Trump makes a lot of sense given the fact that he is more circus than Presidential material (I do however love his tax plan). A Hilary Presidency would definitely be more stable but those high taxes are a drag on the economy. I just hope she doesn't come up with new social programs/bureaucracies and start taxing even more if she wins. T

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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