Monday, March 30, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 30

The lower low I was expecting did not come but we are now seeing the expected counter-rally. The higher low from last week leaves the uptrend intact and today's close above the Trend Average and the 50 DMA is bullish, so we might be looking at another change of trend if there is follow through buying. Couple of weeks ago I posted the following when the market topped and bears need to urgently make their case or else we might see a W3 bull run.

"The ideal target level for the coming correction is 2085 before the resumption of the rally, but obviously lower levels are possible as long as 2039 doesn't get re-visited

I originally wanted to go long at a lower low but above 2039 or short at the 50 DMA or the TA, but since the market went into what looks like a W3, there was no point. So instead I am waiting for the 5 count to complete to go short again.  Alternatively, this wave today could be a C wave which keeps bears hopes alive but I lean which ever the Trend Average is pointing at. This is a bull market that just doesn't want to stop and anything other short term top calling is really a gamble. Now, despite being out of the US market completely, I had my best day this year on my long term portfolio. As most of you know, I'm up to my neck in Chinese shares and the vertical rise in the last year has been thrilling yet very scary. I can see the chart pattern but it is hard to count, so I will be relying of what I've learned in the past few years doing the SP500 and apply it to the SSEC. By the time Chinese market cap reaches 100% of GDP, I will be beyond retired and hopefully that day will come later this year or next year. However, this stuff is starting to keep me up at night.

Here is my attempt to pre-count waves when the SSEC first broke out of its multi-year triangle in the summer. At that time there were none, so this was my projection which has now been clearly exceeded.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

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