Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 28

Sellers took firm control today and they managed to turn the Trend Average convincingly to the bearish side, so I am assuming the current wave is part of the nested bearish count I mentioned on the post yesterday. I thought earnings from Apple would translate into euphoria as in the past, but not this time. So the next stop will be the double bottom support at 1998 and then the 200 DMA 1972. The long term trend continues to be bullish, so this might turn out to be just another correction. But if the market breaks below 1965-70, we could be looking at the start of a bigger correction. And considering the current bullish trend has been in place since February 2012, perhaps it is time to reset some of the long term oscillators. Trade below the 200 DMA is good for bears and for people with cash,  so while I didn't get a chance to short to hedge as I had been hoping on a stronger rally, at least I can buy some stocks on sale. My oil position got stopped out, so I am thinking buying energy indirectly with an ETF from Russia's RSX or even Brazil's EWZ when the dust settles. The good thing about these ETF's is the high yield and the fact that I am buying businesses, which makes me feel much better as an investor. The one thing I don't like about buying oil directly though an instrument like USO is that there is no yield, it's pure speculation so it's not something one can hold on for too long. And in oil's case, it's really a matter of time before it shoots back up to $70-80. We just don't know how long it will take.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

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