Thursday, September 25, 2014

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 25

The market sold off today and broke its 1978 support as well as the 50 DMA at 1976. I was expecting the downtrend to continue after a test of 2010 given yesterday's strong reversal, but this one caught me by surprise. We now have a a clear 5 wave count to 1978 from the all time high and a classic abc move to 1999. The current bearish wave is either a C or a W3 unfolding. An ideal C would bottom at 1959, which could happen in after hours or pre-market trading and would lead to a strong rally as soon as tomorrow. However, the market could just bounce to the 50 DMA/1978 level and sell off again in a nested 1-2 set up. I think it is likely the market will go down to the 200 DMA or at least test 1904 on this sell off, but it is too early to tell since there's not a single catalyst being used as the excuse to sell. In fact, not even the mainstream financial media knows what's behind the selling so it's all open to speculation.

I got stopped out on my long position but I bought it back cheaper towards the end of the day in expectation of a 50 DMA test. I should have sold half yesterday and raise my stop, but got greedy so I am basically back to were I started.. I have to remind myself next time to sell, specially when the trend is bearish..

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics

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