Thursday, May 8, 2014

Stock Market Update - May 8

The market rallied as I had expected but the reversal at resistance raises some doubts. So I am posting the 2 hour chart to "zoom out" and look at how I am counting this at the intermediate time frame. Basically, There is a proportionate 5 wave impulse from the 1814 low after an ABC correction. We got another ABC at a lower degree and today we were supposed to see a W1. However, today's wave failed to meet my minimum standard as far as wave structure goes in relation to a W1. So I am inclined to think we saw another zig zag for an X wave with another ABC move coming. And since the high today was very close to the 1891 high from a few days ago, another proportionate ABC move should put the market in the 1850-59 area. I will be looking out for a 50 DMA bounce if the bearish wave from today continues early morning, with that being the A wave.  If the marker bounces towards 1880 with no further downside then that should be the B, with today's low as the A.

I sold the longs I had from yesterday at the 1885 resistance so that turned out well. And after seeing the market turn back and close slightly under the TA, I bought back a small long position and VXX to hedge it. I will go all long again when key support gets tested again or sell the long position I bought today at 1880 more or less.

Short Term Trend = Bullish Trend Being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

No comments:

Post a Comment