Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Now the sell off?

I posted the following exactly one week ago:

One possible bearish scenario I am keeping in mind is a sell off that will test 1834 and then bounce for a H&S formation, so a sell off to that level should create a good counter trend trade opportunity.

And today the market reached the ideal level for the right shoulder of the H&S after testing the equivalent of 1834 on Sunday's pre-market. The question now is whether the market will follow through on the sell off. The last time we had a similar H&S the pattern failed and the market kept going up until the it got invalidated. But with some of the negative news in the background and the Trend Average still technically bearish, there's a decent chance the market will go down to the H&S target of 1793. Maybe what the Fed says will be the excuse?

I ended buying the other half of my VXX position and I will be holding unless the H&S pattern gets invalidated on anything above 1883.55

Short Term Trend = Bearish Trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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