Friday, September 6, 2013

50 day moving average

It was a volatile day today with the market dropping over 1% early morning before recovering all loses to finally test the 50 day moving average at 1665 before reversing again. And while I had been expecting a 50 day ma test and a reversal for a few days, what comes next is not as clear. The market could be putting in a bullish nested 1-2 which would imply a break of the 50 day ma resistance and a change of trend to the positive side early next week. At the same time we have to keep in mind the potential of the bounce from 1628 being a B wave plus the congressional vote on striking Syria on Tuesday, so it's all open to interpretation. The long term trend is positive so at least there is no guessing there.

I ended buying back VXX at the test of the 50 dma and sold it on the reversal for a few months worth of coffee money, so I am out again and waiting for the next short term trading opportunity. My long term investments are looking better now days so that's good, just hope Obama doesn't go too crazy launching missile strikes and makes this a quick adventure so as to not ruin the markets. I get the feeling that a strike on Syria goes beyond just punishing the regime for allegedly using chemical weapons, there are other motives that are unclear and we're just being told a story that can be sold to the public.

Have a great weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

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