Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Short Term Trend Change Imminent

The market finally revealed itself today and we can officially label the 1475 a "top" for the wave that started from 1329 back in late July, so my target for 5th wave was accurate and hedging profits when I did was the right thing to do. What I am looking for now is a test of the 50 day MA currently at 1408 and rising and maybe even a test of the 200 day MA at 1356 if the bears get lucky. It all depends on how pessimistic the market will get and I think if we see follow through selling tomorrow, we'll see the trend average start acting as resistance on counter rallies. Adding to the bearish side, a "handle" (from the cup and hold pattern) should form in Gold and I think that goes in line with the stock market. Additionally, there is a bearish cross on the daily MACD so as long as the trend average gets respected, I expect downside.

I'm glad I stuck with the TA yesterday and not on the pattern. My hedge is finally paying off..

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long
Short Term Trading Strategy: Hedged with VXX @8.98 as of 09/13

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