Thursday, April 19, 2012

Bear Flag to 1288-1327?

The 5th wave I was looking for was clearly put in pre-market earlier today as futures were higher by more than 10 points but by the opening all gains had been reversed. So What we probably saw today in the cash marker was either an ABC (with C still in progress) or a W1-2-3 so we'll see if we sell off tomorrow or the market manages to find support. Whatever the case, the market closed right on the Trend Average at 1376 (note that the bearish confirmation was given at 1408 and how the market has been slowly falling). Most importantly, today's close brings the TA below the 50 day MA which makes the intermediate trend bearish and in turn implying further downside ahead. Lastly, I posted what now looks like a bearish flag on the market which would target 1-1.618 of A or W1 which would indicate a target of 1288-1327 or right around the Fib retracement area. I also posted the bearish flag we had a few days ago so you can compare the similarities. That bear flag was about 1 of A and preceding that there was a bullish flag that almost went to 1.618 of A so these patterns have worked out well so far. And unless we have some bullish turn ASAP, odds now favor the completion of the pattern.

Today I unhedged at the break of the trend average, so we'll see how that works out.

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