Thursday, March 8, 2012

Downtrend being challenged

The market surprised to the upside (surprised me that is) and I am trashing my complicated triple nested bearish count, which was looking pretty solid up to yesterday. So instead I am labeling the impulsive move from 1372 to 1340 an A and the rally from the last couple of days as a B, which implies a C wave should be coming as soon as tomorrow. And how this C wave behaves will probably set the tone for next week. If we get an impulsive bearish wave down and make a new low then we might see a correction that will go to the 1297 level I mentioned a few days ago. But if the market zig zags its way to its retracement area and finds support, the market will be setting itself up for another impulsive wave up to challenge 1378. Another possibility to watch is a triangle correction for the W4 Minor, which would imply more of a sideways/time correction before gunning for 1400+.

And as bullish as the day was today, this could well be a sucker's rally. The market is already overbought and it is likely to make a lower high, so the downtrend is well in place despite the market closing narrowly above the TA. Also worth noting is the money outflows of stocks that have been leading the market in the last couple of days, that means selling into strength. It's all about wave C at this point.. No movement in my positions today but if I find market hesitation at the Fib level, I will close half positions (hopefully at a profit) and ride the rest until the TA gives me a sell signal.

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