![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisjZo-VCbLVSsUgw-M8B7cAouCxfq8thP0s1hYA-_U4nFjMsKTtPR99-5C_bYnlqs78mlCgQtSRQUsQHce7NCSJ0TlTNPfWNwvbiNiXGdF7wxk13weinGvROLfZycPeKEF4Snso6F9Y-jz/s320/count1014.png)
The FTA 1203 level was broken in after hours so there was no way to trade it and as expected, trading over this level brought new highs to this leg. I have been wrong on the timing of the correction to this rally and as I speculated on Oct 5th, sooner or later I was going to be wrong so now maybe it's time for me to get it right. It's been a strong rally for sure, 150 handles in couple of weeks without a single significant correction. Bullish legs like these are rare but they all come to an end sooner or later and I am predicting the market will turn early next week to the Fib area. One of the indicators I like the most is the one below. Every time you get over 80% of stocks over their 20 day ma, they correct without fail (at least every single time this year).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7xylaoWu-YdpmGr93_VABE4eEzKe40ieG3pqRhWk125-2T_eYmMYRrxj8mXw9NZ4n9E7AB2rZUu2uqilUZCseSDZ_qPoCbjB1arBalntIrfv5-MKn0tUWsv3QEYovszZwMCwdkIm0DH7x/s320/1014.png)
So the question for me now is not really whether stocks will correct, it is to what level. Given the strength of this rally, a correction to the 1150 area is now more likely than the 1120-1130 area I had originally projected. Still can happen obviously but 1150 just looks better at this point and once there we should see a wave that could take us back to 1300.. Fundamentally speaking, the problems that started this summer sell off are still there. So one could look at this rally as a snap back counter rally rather than an actual start of a bull market.
Finally, the weekly tracking of the TA system has it at +25.79% vs -8.4% for the SP500.. goes to show trading this mechanically is the best way to go. Also, the FTA level to watch Monday for a market correction is 1209. The market needs to trade below this level to confirm a bearish turn. Until then, we might see 1230 being challenged.
Have a good weekend!
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