Tuesday, July 19, 2011

W5 in Progress

I posted yesterday that W4 had failed because of 1298 getting breached. However, I was checking the other indexes (DOW, RUT, NASDAQ) and they all have valid patterns. So this will be a case where EW guidelines have to be accommodated to reality. I've seen these W4 fails where there is still a W5 afterwards and I am going with the assumption. EW in itself is a great guiding tool but I personally see flaws (such as this one) that have yet to be publicly corrected. Anyhow, the bottom line is that this wave seems to be W1 of the 5th Intermediate Wave. So I expect a correction to start tomorrow or the next day to test the 50 day again and then we're on to a big rally. Also, the index closed above 1323 which is today's TA and as long as it stays over then we will see a rally that will possibly go as far as 40 points above it.

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