Thursday, February 3, 2011

On to another high on the S&P500

The index retraced a bit more this morning to test the trend at 1295 and turned up as expected after the initial pullback. The pattern looks like a normal 5 wave move so I assume we will see Wave 5 top in the 1310+ area (maybe 1315?) and then correct yet again. Question of course will this be a W2 correction of a higher degree or "the" correction. I think I've been fairly accurate in pointing out the corrections, the challenge has been figuring out the correct degree of correction. So if the next correction is a W2 then we'll see 1350 in a few weeks. Or if this is "the" correction then we're going down to 1230.

I used the pullback today to cover the remainder of my shorts at 1296 for a small profit (the ones taken at 1299) and will re-short the entire position at the end of W5 tomorrow if it comes. And btw I forgot to add that there is a possibility of an Ascending Triangle, which means a higher low tomorrow before breaking out of the AT formation. If there is an AT formation then the target is going to around 1330. Basically, the longer in consolidates the higher it will go. So for trading purposes, it will be better for the index to go higher tomorrow so we can start correcting right away.

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