Monday, January 3, 2011

Happy New Year!

So we got the gap as I was speculating and it turned out to be an up one. Whenever the level I post gets tested successfully, it usually leads to higher prices. And from how it looks so far it seems like there will be another high before it corrects but there is a cross in the MACD in the last couple hours of today's session so maybe it peaked. I can't post a chart today because I have to wait for stockcharts to renew my subscription to access my charts. But basically, the pattern looks like a typical Wave 3 with a Wave 4 towards the close. Whether that is a W4 of a 3, a W4 or a complete 5 wave move of the entire structure remains to be seen but the inverse H&S target I posted last week was reached and perhaps this run up will form the head of what will be a regular H&S. I expect a correction eventually to find support in the 1250 area and possibly form a right shoulder ranging in the 1250-1262 price range. Obviously, it is premature at this point to speculate on any pattern but I continue to favor a turn down soon because of how overbought and optimistic buyers are. Usually these conditions lead to very fast sell offs and that's why I am keeping my short position. I am also keeping my longs from early December so technically speaking, I haven't missed anything.

I wish everyone a Happy New Year and hope we all make a lot money trading in 2011! :-)

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