Thursday, September 16, 2010

Elliott Wave Update - September 16th

The market is triangulating again and there is another ascending triangle in the works that points to 1137. I am hedged as of 1120 and have been day trading my short position to better my cost average. I was only able to gain 1 point today because I missed the late run up but will cover if the lower trendline of the triangle gets tested again. So tomorrow the odds are a small dip before a break out or a gap up to the target.

On a side note, the AAII sentiment survey has hit over 50% bullish, last time it was this high but below 50% we went down. However, last time we had a this big of s spread between bulls and bears (26% in the last week of December 09), the market went up for two more weeks gaining 3%. So while, we might continue to go up a bit more, progress will start stalling as this contrarian indicator shows buyers exhaustion is eventually reached. Actually, one could almost set up a trading system of buying when there is a negative spread extreme and shorting when there is a positive extreme. I'll probably sit down one of these days and do the analysis on it.

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