Saturday, May 29, 2010

SP 1115 as the target?

I am inclined to think we will see at least 1110-1115. There is an obvious rising wedge that needs one more leg to it to make it look right. And once we're at that level there will be a drop, especially if we get there in an impulsive manner. The key clues to what the long term count or direction of the market is will depend on that drop. If we get something truly impulsive to the downside then I would say a larger downside wave is in place. But if there isn't much intensity in that sell off, I would bet we're going sideways or higher. So the battle starts at the 1115 level and things will become truly clear immediately after that. I think for us to get an impulsive wave down we will need a catalyst that will impact the market, otherwise we'll just get a regular wave down which is something the bulls can deal with.

I am holding on to my long position until the next rally (on Tuesday/Wed?) and then I am going massively short. And for the record, I am currently bearish but not "P3" bearish.

On the bullish side, there is an inverted Head and Shoulders formation that is looking good at the moment with a target at 1142. Also, there is the expanding triangle scenario I posted earlier. And I would say if the drop from 1115 does not confirm the most bearish count (which would take out the 1040 low), we'll probably see this particular expanding triangle count take place.

Levels to watch are

1108 ema 34
1135 ema 13 - If the wave down from 1115 is not impulsive, this would be a good spot to short.
1105 ma 200
1163 ma 50

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