More upside or top?

The market did not follow through on the 5 wave count I had on the chart yesterday. So that leaves two main options, one the market finally topped yesterday which has been expected for sometime or yesterday was the top of Wave 1 of this final 5th leg. It is premature to call the entire wave complete until key levels get broken, so for now I will go with the assumption the market is just putting in a Wave 2. The GDP report could have served as an excellent excuse for a sell off but it was mostly ignored. I've been saying the market will see 1600 if GDP continues to grow but if Q1 is ends up being negative as well then it will stop the bull market altogether. I think the assumption is as long as we have a weaker economy the Feds will continue to keep rates low to fuel the market and in turn the economy. I know many question this policy by the Feds but I think it's been working well so far. Using myself as an example, thanks to QE3 I now have a mortgage at 3.5% fixed (it was 4.125% last year) which saves me almost $400 a month and which will now probably end up being spent on home improvement. toys, investments, etc. And like me, there are millions of others doing the same thing and giving the economy traction going forward. So I guess time will tell if Q4 was just a blip or the beginning of a new recession. For now the markets seem to think this is nothing to worry about.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.68 to position trade on 01/25/2013
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.