1481 target?

I posted last night that the correction looked like it was going to start today and the market closed about the same level as yesterday. However, the market spiked to 1502 and then reversed all its gains so despite the new high this could possibly be the start of the correction. For now I am looking at the bearish W1-2 count (or ABC) and the potential head and shoulders targeting 1481 or more or less where the Trend Average is trading. The big question is whether it holds so we shall see, I am inclined to see a stronger correction before going higher but like I said couple of days ago, top picking is not easy. My plan was to buy VXX if the market went over 1500 but I was sleeping, so I'll just be patient and see how this unfolds. In a way I feel more comfortable adding that one last 1/3 position once the bearish trend is confirmed.

I also added a longer term chart so you can see where the market stands. The RSI is over 70 and the wave from 1398 is now 104 points, which is exactly the same as the wave from 1343 to 1448 (look where I marked the Bullish Engulfing Patterns). So this chart is telling me the market needs to go down pronto, like mañana :)

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.