1474 Challenge

The market managed to do it again today by not doing much other than putting in a slightly new high at 1473.96, just $0.50 shy of the high for the entire wave from 666. And while the market continues to look bullish to me due to the trends and the recent chart pattern. I am now also looking at a possible rising wedge, obviously it's not very steep but all these marginal new highs and higher lows makes this a real possibility. And usually this pattern breaks to the downside (69% of the time), if the highs were at the same level it would be a bullish set up. So it's make or break time for the market as consolidation has now gone on for a while and these marginal new highs are enough to call it a 5th wave. I continue with my longs but today I added 1/3 of my anticipated hedge, so 1000 VXX at $25.78. If it breaks out, then I'll be adding more at $24+?  and if not then I'll make some money too.

And speaking of volatility, it's worth noting VXX closed at $25.50 and this same ETF was about $100 a year ago. So be very careful if you buy this ETF and I would advise people to stay away from the triples like UVXY as this one will literally bury you if the market goes against you. Today it breached $13, the price last year was $410! so that's $3 out of $100 (and I thought nothing could beat Prechter's Elliott Wave shorting advice!) while the VIX was $18 last year and $13 today.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 90% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.