Prices have continued to climb ending the week up almost 5% and right on the 200 DMA at 2760. I assume the catalyst for the next substantial market move will be the outcome of trade talks between Trump and Xi in Argentina. But looking at where the moving averages are headed, the death cross seems inevitable unless there is a bullish miracle. Also, I don't think China will yield much to pressure from Trump as the one that has the most to lose is actually Trump and the US. A big increase in tariffs to goods from China will be felt across the board in the US and have a significant inflationary effect. China will see their share of exports to the US shrink but after all, exports to the US are no more than 20% of their total so they are not exactly dependent on US trade. The bottom line is, if the trade war continues, China will see their economy slow down but we will see a recession sooner than the anticipated in the US. Last but not least, the pressure is on Trump to bring home some sort of deal as he is the one running for re-election in 2 years. Xi is not under that type of pressure so he can drag his feet if he wants to.
Have a great weekend!
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking
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