The market gapped up and broke the W(1) high on the chart and came in very close to breaking out. But since the market enjoys shaking out weak hands, the wave corrected quickly and then bounced right back to near the opening price. I thought maybe the market was going to touch the TA but it bounced hard before testing it and closed comfortably above it. And with that, another close above the TA will probably turn the ST trend green thus providing support for the bullish case. The correcting triangle is technically still in place but its chances look dim as failure to put in lower lows adds pressure to a bullish break out of the range. So I will be looking at the break of 1648 to confirm a bullish breakout that could result in a bear stampede should the market gap up hard again. The question then (if the market breaks out) is whether the market intends to put in a flat (nested 1-2 targets 1680-90) or if the wave is indeed a W3 going to the 1700+ area. I am remaining long until there is a reason not to be.
Also, I added a disclaimer to the trends posted. It seems like some people take these indicators as trade signals but they are not. If you have been on the site for a while, you'll understand how I use them. But to people unfamiliar with my way of trading, here it is:
Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.
Main S&P 500 Trends*
Short Term Trend = Neutral leaning bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish
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