Revised Target 1617 by May

The market continued its bull run and invalidated the H&S pattern on the Long Term Chart. And it now looks obvious the 1539 low was yet another base for another likely bullish 5 wave count. Last week when we first saw the first bearish wave I pointed out the option of a 5 wave bearish count to 1520 or an ABC stopping at 1538 and then going to an all time high.

"So before getting ahead of ourselves, we first need to see if we get that 5 count or another ABC correction and another higher high. If this turns out to be an ABC correction, then the market should bottom around the 1538 support level from the previous Int W4 or ABC."

The market managed to put in a higher low and one of the most bullish waves of the year (35 points so far) seemingly out of nowhere, as I can't find a catalyst that would cause this much bullishness. Perhaps it has something to do with the moon or me buying VXX (and NOT taking profit when I should of have) ..lol. So now that we got that out of the way, the new preliminary target is 1617 in May IF this is a W1. And perhaps then, we should see the market hit the upper channel of the Long Term Chart and finally put it "the" top for the rally that started from 1343 (amazing how much the market has advanced in just a few months).

I am officially holding a VXX bag and my plan is the same as yesterday, get rid of it on the next bearish wave unless we get an amazing sell off taking out 1538.. which I don't see just yet. Good thing I am also long so I can look at that portfolio and pretend I am not a bag holder..

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 20.22 on 04/04/13
• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k