The market closed at another all time high today and came close to the 1576 level as I had been expecting. And since this looks like an Rising Wedge, the high today could serve as the 5th wave and the top of the entire structure that started at 1485. I originally had 1589 as the ideal target when the first wave materialized and after the confirmed W4 low at 1538 last week, I mentioned 1578 as another likely destination. Now that we are within 1% of this area, the likelihood of a significant top is highly probable. The question now to me is not so much of where the top will be exactly but whether the market will do a test of the 50 DMA and bounce from there to an all time high or go straight to the 200 DMA. If we take seasonality into account, a move to the 50 DMA and then another all time high around May would fit well into what has happened in the last few years. However, given the fact of how previously "hot" markets like the SSEC and HSI have corrected substantially this year, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a stronger correction take place sooner.
And per my plan yesterday, I sold my short term position on FXI at a loss, so there goes my 7 for 7 (technically I bought at the right time around SP 1554 but Chinese stocks are still looking for a bottom) and I loaded on 3000 VXX in the 19's as I had been hoping for a while. My guess at this point is that 1558 and the TA has a good chance of holding on the coming bearish wave so I'll probably take profit there and reload on the bounce.
Main S&P 500 Trends
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Portfolio
- 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13
Short Term Margin Trading Strategy
- Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13
- Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
- Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
- Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
- Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
- Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
- Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
- Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
- Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
- Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
- Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
- Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
- Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
- Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
- Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05
- Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
- Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
- Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
* Margin position avg is $20k
* Margin position in gold is $4k
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