Bearish Trend Average Confirmation

The market dropped hard today in the morning as I had been expecting but then it came back with a decent bounce after testing the 1538 level I mentioned as a target for an ABC when the top was confirmed a few days ago. And if this level holds, then I'll expect the market to do this ABC correction for the third time this year. For reference of what this potential looks like, take a look at the last 2 times it happened:

http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/2013/02/1498-level.html
http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/2013/03/close-below-trend-average.html

So if this bounce turns into a bullish wave on Monday, then I am expecting another potential Inverse Head and Shoulders that could target 1580. With that said, the last two times we saw these ABCs I leaned bullish because of the incomplete wave structure and the Trend Average being bullish. But this time, I am satisfied with the wave structure as it is and most importantly we have a confirmed change of the short term trend. So in this bearish scenario, the market could be putting in a bearish nested 1-2 that will reveal itself early next week. Also, if you look at the long term chart I put up today, we now have a neckline for an Head and Shoulder that would target 1503 if complete. Which way the market will go is uncertain as of now but going by the TA, I am positioning myself for downside.

I am still holding the VXX I bought yesterday and did not sell today when support hit. I suppose greed got the best of me as I was up over 5% on the trade I initiated just yesterday but VXX is just a weird animal. I had been calculating and expecting a $1 return for every 10 SP500 points retraced but after a 20 point drop it was just up a little over a dollar so I decided not to take profit until I saw 2 dollars. Instead, this demon gave up ALL gains and ended the day flat despite the market being down several points. Quite frustrating to trade volatility but it is very challenging and that's why I probably enjoy playing with it. I figure, at some point I will get the hang of it... and maybe early next week I'll get my $2 dollars!!

Have a Great Weekend.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k