Ok, where do I begin.. today the main news are Hugo Chavez is dead and so is the Bearish Primary 3 count. The market made an all time high (the Dow) as yours truly predicted last week and the S&P 500 is getting closer as well. The Dow making an all time high is of big significance to the orthodox Elliott Wave crowd, since their main bearish count has been predicting a huge sell off to Dow 400 ever since the markets sold off in 2009. Which never really made sense in the fundamental sense and encouraged me to divert from the traditional EW blogs. And now that this count has been officially invalidated, I can finally say.. I TOLD YOU SO! (to those who questioned my criticism of the P3 count). All that fear mongering kept most EWI followers out of the market or worst yet made them loose a ton of money during these past 4 years. Luckily for fear mongers, there is no accountability for their "investing advice". With that said, Elliott Wave theory does work great in shorter time frames and specially the way I practice it, which is in conjunction with the main trends. The main reason I am able to pin point turning points somewhat accurately like today, last week or the week before that is because I read waves. Traditional oscillators or candles doesn't offer the consistency of accurate wave counts and I think this has been proven on this blog for the past couple of years since I discovered how to integrate trends with wave counts. EW would not be useful if I offered a bullish and bearish scenario every day, since people might as well flip a coin. With the trend average, we have one count being followed 9 out of 10 times and this is what makes this blog unique among the numerous technical analysis and elliott wave blogs. I try to point out the right count on the right side of the trade.
And speaking of the trends, I am taking off the trend average turning points on the left column. When I first discovered the impact this trend had on my trading, I wanted to test it real time and after 2 years of doing so I no longer need to do it. I know it works better than anything I have ever seen and combined with accurate wave counts, it is a proven money making method. So to those that have bothered to understand it, you now have a powerful tool to guide you in the market.
Ok, so now the market today.. the impulse seen this morning confirms the W4 low at 1485. And if we get a "normal" 5 wave impulse the target is 1589, which is in line with my earlier predictions of 1600 and a rally up until May. Also, since the "P3" count has been trashed, I am adding the long term count that I have been tracking since 2011. This count points to a break out of the range so we can expect much higher highs if this long term counts continues to prove correct. For now, I am expecting a completion of W3 which seems to have a 5 count inside it.
Main S&P 500 Trends
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Portfolio
- 95% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13
Short Term Margin Trading Strategy
- Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
- Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
- Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
- Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
- Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
- Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
- Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
- Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
- Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05
- Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
- Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
- Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
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