Another Bullish Engulfing Pattern?

So we are going on the Fiscal Cliff after all but political maneuvering (with Biden's help) seems to have worked out a deal that will prevent taxes for going up for 99%+ of tax payers. And the market seems to have liked that a lot as we have a potential bullish reversal in place and a strong rally in the next few sessions. However, the assumption is that house Republicans will vote with their Senate leader so only after a deal is sealed will the air of uncertainty disappear. Should Republicans in the house revolt, then down the market will go. And as I was saying last week, these periods are impossible to predict with Technical Analysis IMO because we are not in a normal market, so only after we know that the risk of recession from the Fiscal Cliff is gone can we go back to normal again. But as it is, there is another Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the charts and you can see what happened the last time we had one. And should the markets rally, my guess is that it is going to rally hard to play catch up with the rest of the world. The economic environment is far more positive right now than it was last year where concerns about Europe collapsing, China hard landing and the US stuck in slow growth dominated the headlines. None of these major events came true and while they could still happen, the probabilities have been drastically reduced. Especially if we get the tax and cut issues worked out in the US.

I've never done this before but I am going to predict some levels for the S&P 500 and China/HSI for next year. Assuming none of the key economies goes into recession this is what I am projecting using valuations:

S&P 500 = 1,600
China SSEC = 3,000
Hang Seng Index = 28,000

So we'll see revisit these numbers Dec 31st next year and hope I will be somewhat right. I will post the long term Elliott Wave chart on the next update, which again I only look at for reference and not to actually trade or invest.

As of today, my main holding which is FXI shot up to 40.43 plus I got confirmation my refinance was funded at 3.5%, so I am a happy man :) And no new trades until the dust is settled but I will be deploying the cash in hand at the first sign of a healthy pullback.

Have a Happy New Year and may the next year bring lots of health and joy.. and some $$ too!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 90% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

1390 Support

Here is the chart from Friday  I added some labels to it but like I said, I wouldn't rely on it as these are periods that render technical analysis useless IMO. No wave count or MACD could possibly predict how house republicans will vote on the proposed fiscal cliff legislation, once we get the news then we can go back to the tools that have helped us in the past few months. In the meantime, it seems like the tone is mildly optimistic so we shall see..

Market Update

I am having problems login on to my chart software so I'll add the chart this weekend when the bug is fixed. But from what I can tell from checking the markets on my phone earlier today, key levels have been broken and the next stop is the 200 DMA at 1387 (need to double check that on the charts). So Monday will be an interesting day as we should finally know if a deal will be approved or not. Obama is "modestly optimistic" meaning he is not sure if what he is proposing will be pass in the house so we could wake up Monday (or after the vote) to a huge sell off or rally. In a way there is no point in even labeling the waves as we might as well flip a coin on this one.

I am glad I am out of the US market as there's a bit too much drama at the moment. The shares I sold yesterday actually went up today so I am staying 90% invested abroad. What will be interesting is how those markets will react if we get a nasty sell off in the US, maybe money will flow that way from here? who knows..

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 90% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Fiscal Cliff Suspense

The Fiscal Cliff issue continues and the markets are starting to get nervous. With just a few days to go, I'm not sure how they are going to pull this off. Last month a Fiscal Cliff deal seemed possible and probable, now days it is looking possible but improbable. But there isn't much we can do at this point but to wait. The key 1411 and 1413 levels were broken today by a wave I have labeled a "C", but the market quickly recovered these levels towards the end of the day. Ultimately the count or the trend in these few days won't really matter as the outcome will be decided by politicians and no one can possibly predict what is going to happen with any degree of accuracy.

I decided to "take my foot off the pedal" a little and sold 10% of my long term holdings to lock in profit and raise come cash. I could sell another 10-15% but I am going to see how HSI and China trades as we approach Jan 1st. Also, if the FC does happen then there will be bargains once the sell off is done and specially if the country goes into a recession. So in that sense, people who pay attention will profit from this either way.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 90% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015

Short Term Trend Bearish Confirmation

The market broke one of the key support levels today and closed under the Trend Average again, turning the short term trend to the bearish side. The next key levels for support are the 50 DMA at 1413 and 1411, if these levels don't hold then down the market goes. However, I get the feeling that the market is just waiting for Washington to make up its mind on the whole Fiscal Cliff issue before going one way or another. Looking around the world, almost all markets are rallying so either the US joins the worldwide rally or drags other markets down. The HSI reached a 52 week high tonight (just a few points from the ideal 22,750 level I had been targeting)  and the Nikkei has rallied 18% in just a few weeks, ironically from about the time a recession was officially declared in Japan. So I am just going to be patient and see what the US is going to do and its effects on the markets I'm invested in. If those rallies find a top, I'll get out and buy again them again at a later time.

The Nikkei btw is likely to reach parity with the DOW due to its currency debasement policy, so it could easily go up to 13,000 in the not too distant future. I remember when I was in Japan just a few years ago (2007) the yen was 115, today it trades at 85 to a dollar. So if their QE manages to devalue the Yen back to 115, then Nikkei 13,000-15,000 would be an easy target based on currency devaluation alone.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015

Close under TA

The market didn't do much today as it it waiting for news. But it did close under the Trend Average and right at the lower trend line I drew over the weekend. The way it is set up now, if 1422 gets broken it will get bearish and if 1411 doesn't hold there might be a substantial sell off. So I am waiting for concrete signals to take profits or continue to stay long. Like TDD said over the weekend "If I have to worry about the market, I'll worry about what it's doing and not what it might do." so with that said, I wish you all Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays! I am still hoping for Santa to come this year!

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015

Weekend Update

I didn't get a chance to do it yesterday but I added the channels for the current wave structure to add a better perspective on what is going on. Note the market's uptrend remains intact as the index remained in this channel. Also, I wanted to add the reason I labeled the move from 1448 an ABC is because the potential 3rd Wave which looked very impulsive in pre-market, ended up rallyinginto the A/W1 territory and in turn invalidating the 5 wave count. Obviously, there could still be 5th wave but the fact the MACD I track was about to go bullish and the close at the Trend Average leads me to believe the move has so far been corrective. So there is still a chance of a Santa Rally we see key signals reversed.

End of the World Update

So it's 12/21/12 and the world has not ended as 1 in 10 people had been expecting.. lol. In a way, I am amazed at how some people think. But I guess I better not get ahead of myself since the day is not over yet.. but I'm going to guess we'll still be here tomorrow, next year and the next 5000 years. And I wonder if in 5000 years people will be talking about the Mayan Calendar again..

Anyhow, the market did not sell off as hard as I had been expecting. Futures looked really bad last night after Boehner announced his plans had collapsed. But the market found support at the previous year high around the 1423 level and it managed to bounce and close at the Trend Average. So things are not as bearish as of yet, we'll just have to see what Obama and the Democrats can do. Maybe they'll use this opportunity and come out as the saviors of the economy. The world has been rallying and the US is being held back by the Fiscal Cliff, so if a solution is found there will be a huge catch up rally.

I didn't take profit as I don't see a topping sign just yet, so will be holding on until I see some key levels breached.

Have a Good Weekend! unless all clocks stop and the world collapses exactly at midnight :)

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*

* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015.

50 DMA Test

The market bounced as expected today in a W5. But as I write this update, pre-market is down 22 points so we can pretty much write off this count courtesy of politicians screwing around with the health of our economy. The market had closed strongly today but now we'll have to see if the 50 DMA holds the sell off tomorrow at 1414 and begin a new count there. And not sure if Boehner did the vote today on purpose to show Democrats what he is up against or if he sincerely believed he would get his plan B approved. And should the country go over the FC, I hope all these stubborn politicians get voted out as they obviously care more about themselves than the well being of the economy as taxes will go for everyone on Jan 1st,  not just the very wealthy (how does that help them in their pledge not to raise taxes is truly beyond me).

FXI almost hit $40 today but I highly doubt it will be anywhere close to it tomorrow. So maybe it's time to start locking in some partial profit here. I'll see if the 50 DMA holds and how the market bounces back to the TA,

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*

* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015.

Consolidation

The market seems to be consolidating on a W4 wave but it is looking very similar to the wave with the three rising valleys, in that there was a W1 and then a W3 that was 1.6 of W1 followed by 5 waves down. The difference this time is the W4 has not gone into W1 territory yet so we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if the market intends to test the Trend Average. For the sake of simplicity it'd be better is the market cooperates with the count and rallies tomorrow! We now have 12 days left for a Fiscal Cliff deal so the pressure is on but I get the feeling a couple of hundred billion is not that big of a negotiation gap at this point, so both parties (or one of them) will budge and compromise, just in time to give us a Santa Claus rally.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*

* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015.

Next target 1464

Yesterday I posted 1438 was likely going to be challenged if the count I had posted was right and today we got that and more. In fact, we got an almost perfect 1.61 of W1 and the next level to clear for the market is 1464. I am expecting a W4 and the W5 this week, so we'll see how that turns out. I am guessing the market is starting to price in a Fiscal Cliff resolution and if that really does get resolved, the market should have another positive year in 2013. That is of course if the world doesn't end on 12/21/12 as some of the doomsters like to believe.I'm surprised Prechter hasn't incorporated that into his crash to DOW 100 scenario.

No trades today but I will be buying that crazy VXX when the top comes.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 

As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*

* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015.

1438 to be challenged?

First of all, thanks for taking a look at the gun control issue. Whether you agree or disagree, at least this has made people think about this problem we are having with mass shootings. Just over the weekend, about couple of miles from where I am writing this update, an idiot was spraying bullets at a busy shopping mall parking lot. Luckily, no one was injured but it goes to show how endemic this problem has become.

Anyhow, back to the market.. The index managed to bounce right back above the 50 DMA and the Trend Average, which is a bullish sign. Looking at the waves, I am labeling the waves a W1-2 because I see 5 waves in W1. It's still too early to tell but the market is well positioned to take on the 1438 level as soon as tomorrow. Another alternative would be a retrace back to the 50 DMA or the TA after a mild bullish opening and rally from there. I am aware there are bearish options out there but no point in talking about them until the Trend Average changes to the bearish side. Also, I just read the Obama administration has lowered their request for the revenue part of the Fiscal Cliff to $1.2 trillion (down from $1.6) and the Republicans raised theirs over the weekend to $1 trillion. Additionally, the gap on social spending is narrowing so it is looking like some sort of deal will be reached sooner rather than later and I can see 1475 being taken out if an agreement happens before Dec 31st.

I ended up selling my AAPL shares on the bounce after its previous low ($505) was breached, so I made few bucks there but would have made more if I would have waited. But I am extra careful with margin, so the less market exposure the better. On my China longs, I am still waiting for a good point to start hedging/locking in partial profit. But it just keeps going up.. hope FXI gets to $41 before the year end :-)

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Close Under 50 DMA

Before I go on what happened in the markets today, I wanted to post this link to sign a petition for gun control.

Gun Control Petition

I actually own guns and I think people should have the choice to have guns to defend their properties. However, with one idiot going crazy every other week, how many more people have to die before we come to our senses on this? whatever we have in place is obviously not working so I hope there will be more checks or restrictions on buying guns.

Ok.. so the market decided to invalidate the count and trash the perfect count. So I labeled it as a completed wave structure and from the 1438 peak I see 5 waves down to the low today. Which wave this is will be decided early next week on the bullish wave. A very bullish wave and it will be a W3, a choppy wave that gets to the Fib retracement area or that trades sideways will signal more downside ahead. The market closed under the 50 DMA and the Trend Average, so this could still be considered a test. But substantial downside changes the bullish environment. China and HSI rallies have had not effect in the US, last night China rallied 4.3% and that helped my FXI but I am holding on to those until I see some sort of signal of a top.

Today I sold the XIV for coffee money and bought AAPL..I couldn't resist the risk/reward on Apple so I bought a few shares to play the bounce/rally.

Have a Good Weekend and if you agree on a change of gun laws, please sign the petition.. thanks.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin -
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,475*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Market Update

The market retraced substantially today from the 1338 top all the way down to test the Trend Average and the 50 DMA but it is still in a valid W4 as the W1 peaked at 1415.5. So if this is the count, the market will hold today's lows before rallying on a W5. However, the structure could be completed and the bearish wave could be labeled an A wave but since trends are positive, I'll just assume a higher high. China and HSI are rallying hard but so far that hasn't translated into much here in the US, so I guess all eyes are on the Fiscal Cliff issue. I jumped in today at the test of the TA and bought some XIV, so hope the market gets a good bounce/rally tomorrow. Also, I am still not selling my China stocks.. HSI hit 22600 so getting close to a perfect 5 waves at 22750.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - 
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,395*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Perfect 5 Wave Count

The market continued its rally today breaking the 1434 level and turning the weekly channel to the upside. And most importantly signaling an impending trend change to the bullish side on the intermediate signal. I posted yesterday that 1441 was the projected target and we got very close to it today. But in looking at the waves closely, a better target was 1338 which is where we got the high today. I found 1438 by breaking down W3 in to 5 waves and you see a perfect count there. W1 on W3 was 14.41 points, W3 was 1.62 of W1 and W5 was 14.39 points! so close to perfection, it's scary. So the top today seems like the top of W3 and not the complete structure. If we assume the low today was the bottom of W4 then we have 1445 as the target. And obviously, the structure could have topped today but that 5 wave count on the 3rd is so perfect that I hope it stays intact.

I set my auto trigger today at 1441 to buy some VXX but it did not hit. But I'm not really sweating it since we might see a higher high anyway. I was also very tempted to take some profits on the FXI position but again, I think it's better to see an evidence of a short term top before doing anything. As it is, I could just let it ride until the short term trend turns bearish.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,395*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Pattern Break Out

Yesterday I posted the 3 rising valleys pattern (which is just a nested 1-2 in wave terms) and I figured  a fiscal cliff resolution hint would probably be needed to ignite a rally. However, I was wrong on that as we still have no clue on the Fiscal Cliff but the market decided to break out anyway. So there goes the 65% probability of a solution to the FC soon.. Looking at the wave structure, we have a nice bullish 5 count with W3 being 1.63 of W1. And if today's retrace was W4 then W5 projects 1441. So that looks like a safer place to load up on some shorts to hedge and perhaps we'll get that in the next couple of sessions. The intermediate trend will likely turn bullish in the next session or two as well, so it seems like we are headed way up.

I didn't trade today and I'm waiting for the 5th leg to load up on some VXX. And perhaps I will hedge/sell some of my China shares then too for some profit taking. I am guessing we need to see a bigger retrace and then a big run up in prices which would fit well with uncertainty over the FC and then a resolution.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,395*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Three Rising Valleys and Fiscal Cliff Resolution Odds

The market closed above the 50 DMA again and should the market stage a rally, the intermediate trend will change to the bullish side. Right now the markets are waiting for a resolution to the Fiscal Cliff and if we go by patterns, there is a 65% chance there will be a resolution fairly soon. The reason is we have a Three Rising Valleys pattern in place, which is a very bullish pattern that is about to break out. I searched for exact stats on this pattern and the winning rate is about 65% so I am basing my odds for the Fiscal Cliff resolution on historical stock market patterns. Because as it is, they are playing political poker and the public is in the dark on which way the Republicans are leaning. So let's see if the politicians can deliver this on time so we can have a monster Christmas Rally!

I didn't trade short term today as I am waiting for things to clear. But my FXI longs hit $39 (after hours) and I am hoping the US rallies so this thing can shoot over $40. I am going to start checking into ticket prices to Rapa Nui soon..lol

The odds for the Three Rising Valleys pattern are from Fidelity and here is the link:

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/technical-analysis/three-rising-valleys-pdf

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,395*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Year End Rally

The market made it to 1420 today and every small retrace has been putting in higher lows, so the market looks like it wants to rally. However, the Fiscal Cliff issue remains an obstacle and I hope they will agree on some sort of deal by the end of next week or the week before Christmas at the latest. Fundamentally speaking, people in higher income brackets should pay the same rate as everyone else and they shouldn't be targeted just because they make more money. If anything, people in higher income brackets who own businesses should have a regressive tax so they have incentives to expand their businesses to make more money so they'll fall in a lower tax bracket. That way you get more capital deployment, more employment and more tax revenue. A progressive tax just penalizes people who want to expand their business or simply become more successful and that is not what we need. But since most people don't like (or understand) the concept, there will always be a progressive tax system in place and I hope Republicans will accept that and move on.

Anyhow, I ended up selling the XIV position for coffee money for next month (literally). And this was a tricky trade as I sold it close to the day's high at 18.93 set early morning but then it rallied to 19.25 in the last hour which would have made the trade much more profitable. But it's ok as long as I made some money and I am out of the market for the weekend. Also, China and HSI and looking strong but I am still debating when to start taking profit as I am thinking HSI is probably on a W4 with more room to go. Maybe I'll get lucky and that index will hit 22750 by Christmas.

Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 

• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,395*

* Margin position is usually $15-20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k