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Saturday, December 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 19th












What a year it has been. I remember last December I had just come back from a trip to the UK and was really looking forward to a great 2020! And it was around this time last year that I first heard of the corona virus in China and how it could spread abroad. I thought it was going to be like SARS or the H1N1 flu but it turned out to be the worst pandemic we have seen in 100 years. One would think, an event of cataclysmic proportions would have caused a 12-year bull market to crash but instead, the market is up almost 15% this year!! One would assume looking at this that bear market corrections do not exist anymore and are a thing of the past.

Anyway, I don't even want to predict what is going to happen in 2021 with the market because it has become impossible to do so. But one thing I do know from doing this for so long is that everything comes in cycles. Whether the next cycle will be a big downturn or a temporary one will remain to be seen but I am deploying all the cash I've been accumulating in the next bullish cross (assuming a bearish cross will come in the next few months). I have seen several Elliott Wave counts that call for a big turn soon that could create many opportunities and we'll see if they finally come to fruition. Whatever the case, staying with the trend will be the safest thing to do. 

I hope 2021 will bring normality to our lives once again. I am already looking forward to travelling and catching up on so many things I had to put off this year. If there is anything positive about 2020 is that I have learned to appreciate normality!

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 5th




The market closed the week at a new all-time high and it seems unstoppable at this point. I don't think anyone could have predicted the market to be at an all-time high at this point during the very peak of the pandemic and a damaged economy. And that's not even taking into account how long this rally has been going on for. Technically speaking, we are still on the same leg that started in 2009, possibly the longest and expansive wave ever. And while I think (and hope) we will get a good correction to take advantage of lower prices, I am not so sure we will see a multi-year bear given the persistently low-interest environment keeping up asset prices. Maybe it will come when none of us are expecting it as usual.

I have a lot of cash sitting on the side at this point. About 35% of my total liquid assets to be exact. I will get into an interest yielding ETF once we get a correction and then re-assess if I should be more aggressive as 2021 progresses.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors



Saturday, November 21, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 21st

 












The market closed the week slightly negative at -0.77% after reaching a new ATH last Friday. If prices continue to fall then the TA will likely turn bearish this coming week. Looking at the waves from the longer-term perspective, there are enough waves to call the rally finished so there is a chance we could see a sharp turn-around soon. At the same time, given that all the bad news are out (Record COVID cases, a President who refuses to leave, recession, etc), I am not sure what could bring down the market substantially at this point. In a way, the biggest surprise is how well the stock market has performed despite all the challenges. I just hope it won't be the loser doing something even more unthinkable and stupid to wreck the economy or the political system in this country. 

The good news is that the vaccines are coming so hopefully normality will come back very soon! I am going to catch up on traveling for sure.

Short Term Trend = Bulliss trend being challenged

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Thursday, November 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 11th












The market has been able to reverse course again and turn all bullish again. This technically happened last week and now the market has reached a new all-time high which invalidates all previous bearish set ups and positions the market for further gains if the TA remains bullish. The technical setup prior to the elections was pointing to a strong sell-off and despite the fact that the loser has refused to concede (as predicted), the markets are choosing to overlook this problem. Whether this will turn out to be a "head fake" or the beginning of a sustained rally for the next couple of months remains to be seen but for now, trends are firmly bullish.

I continue to hoard cash and will only deploy when the time is right. There might be upside to be missed but I continue to believe there will be strong selling once the current vaccine euphoria subsides and it's better to be patient at this point.

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, October 31, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 31st

 


The market lost -5.41% for the week and closed well below the 50 DMA at 3402. Failure to recapture lost ground this coming week will just add selling pressure and will likely push prices to test the 200 DMA at 3129. The most likely scenario, if the Trend Average is not recaptured soon, is a severe substantial selloff in the next week or two and the renewal of the bear market. I assume the next few months are going to be rough for the market and the country as a whole. But at least, hopefully, we won't have a clown as a president anymore. The potential for conflict and violence in the US is high given all the political rhetoric but I think in the end we will get through this. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors



Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 27th

 


Last week I added this note below on EWA:

"The market has struggled in the past few sessions and the short-term trend has turned bearish. This could be the very beginning of a significant top if prices fall below the 3400 level. However, if the market is able to turn around and make a higher high then it has a clear shot at making new all-time highs before the end of the multi-month rally."

The market has lost more ground since last week and now prices are below the 3400 level I mentioned so the probability of a major selloff looks increasingly likely soon, possibly this or next week. I can't imagine the clown actually conceding like a normal person after the results so I am going to assume he will be the cause for this coming selloff and bear market. The question is how bad is it going to get. Will he call on his supporters to start revolting or worse? will the national guard/military get involved? it sounds like a far-fetched scenario but considering what we have seen in the last 4 years, this scenario sounds likely. And obviously, we are also going to see horrible virus numbers so maybe that could move the market as well but I think the main cause will be the loser himself.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Saturday, October 17, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 17th

 


The market started the week strong and came within a few dozen points of an ATH but it struggled to hold on to gains for the rest of the week. If prices fail to make higher highs this coming week then it could turn bearish and start to sell-off substantially. But for now, the TA remains bullish and I will assume higher highs until 3340 is breached. We're a couple of weeks away from the elections and results should move the markets substantially. Also, the coronavirus is going to continue to surge to numbers not seen since the national peak in the spring and I wonder if the markets will continue to ignore the impact as it has done for the last few months. 

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors






Monday, October 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 12th

 


The market has continued to make higher highs as expected and I think an ATH is in the cards this or next week as long as the Trend Average remains bullish. I wouldn't be surprised if prices go much higher if a viable coronavirus vaccine is announced before the elections. Whatever the case, I think the event that will be the excuse for a massive selloff will be the outcome of the elections. The Trump campaign is showing signs of desperation and the clown himself will refuse to acknowledge a loss. I think anyone who has been paying attention to what this man has done or said in the last 4 years would bet this is the most likely scenario and this will be uncharted territory for this country. Also, I wanted to add that USPS delays are a big problem and I wonder how this will factor into the result for the elections. I can tell you for a fact, that 20% of USPS First Class and Priority mail is getting lost or delayed for several weeks (normally, it takes 2-3 business days). I am not sure if this is particular to my region (California) or if it's nationwide. I send several thousand packages per month and the 20% loss/extremely late rate for the last few weeks doesn't seem to be getting better. So, unless ballots are given special handling (as they should), I don't see how we're going to have accurate results on Nov 3rd. The next few weeks are going to be interesting.


Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors




Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 6th

 


It seems like 7 months since last week's Trump-Biden debate instead of 7 days but we are now getting closer to election time and to possibly a significant top for the market. Prices have rallied quite a bit as expected since the 3209 low held up last week but we could see headwinds between now and the outcome of the elections. Surging corona virus cases, the contamination of the White House (and now the Pentagon) and even the clown himself hasn't done much damage to the market. But I continue to assume some election drama, like Trump's refusal to leave the WH could cause the market to collapse. We'll find out in the next few weeks. For now, the TA is bullish despite the sell-off today so I will assume higher highs and maybe even an ATH challenge as long as the TA remains bullish.


Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Saturday, September 26, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 26th












The market staged a strong counter-rally on Friday but still lost -1.11% for the week. A lower low at 3209 was made and whether this low breaks this coming week will be critical for the uptrend that started in March. Looking at the charts, there could still be one more bullish leg left before another bear market comes, so this coming week will be important to watch for clues. By now, it seems the market simply refuses to acknowledge the effects of the coronavirus so I am not sure whether the coming spike in cases will do anything to the market. However, if Trump refuses to concede or makes things chaotic in November then it will be a good reason for the market to go into the next bear market. Looking at the man, my bet is he will not acknowledge losing. Just like he constantly refuses to acknowledge the polls and calls the Nov election rigged and unfair. Sounds like a nightmare slowly coming true.. just when you thought 2020 was already bad enough.


Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors




Monday, September 21, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 21st

 


I meant to update the site last night but I forgot. This is what I added to EWA over the weekend;

"The market closed the week down -0.64% but support at 3310 was breached on Friday and this opens the possibility of strong selling in the next few sessions. If prices fall below 3310, the next level of significant support is 3100."

Today, the market experienced substantial selling, and anything short of a strong rebound to the 3400's sets up the market for a continued strong sell-off. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Sunday, September 13, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 12th

 












The market has continued to make lower lows and just barely closed over its 50 DMA at 3321. If prices fall below the 50 DMA, we should see selling accelerate to test the 3100 level. If prices are able to bounce off from last week's lows then it still has a chance to making another ATH before the "top" is in. Whatever the case, substantial selling will come in the next few weeks or few months and bring prices down to levels that actually reflect a recession. It's a waiting game but I think it will ultimately pay off very well. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors










Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 1st

 












I forgot to add the update over the weekend. This coronavirus situation has really messed up my schedule. However, there isn't much to add anyway other than as long as the market trades above the Trend Average we can expect new all-time highs. Looking at the wave, I can see that it is close to completion and whether a major pullback starts to take place then remains to be seen. But from the look of things, we could see the rally rage out of control as if we were in a booming economy with the greatest President EVER! lol. My bet is reality will hit the fan sometime before the elections and until then, I am out of the US market.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 22nd












The market closed the week at a new all-time high as expected and if TA remains bullish, we will see new records this coming week. I think we are getting closer to a top but whether the drop happens this month, next, or even October remains to be seen. I am back to all cash on my US position and waiting for this big drop so I hope I am right on this one. Tops are notoriously hard to predict (relative to bottoms) but I am going by technicals as well as the fundamentals for the economy. So far, the recession has not been priced in at all. If anything, one would think we are having a 2% GDP growth this year.. crazy.


Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 15th


The market closed the week challenging all-time highs as expected. If the TA remains bullish, we will see new all-time highs in the next week or two. How much higher it will go it's anyone's guess but I believe we are close to a significant top. Not only is the market technically overbought but there are plenty of reasons of why the market will sell off. We are in a deep recession, a national health catastrophe and now a wanna-be dictator who is deliberately trying to steal an election by sabotaging voting. Hopefully, 2021 will be a completely different!

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Sunday, August 9, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 8th


The market closed the week up +2.45% and is now headed towards an ATH challenge. In fact, if the TA remains bullish, we should see new all-time highs in the next week or two. It's such insane event if you take into consideration we just crossed 5 million coronavirus cases and the projection is now 300K deaths by December. That's more Americans dying than all wars combined since WW2 but it seems like the pandemic is not registering just yet. But as I've been saying, the time will come when all of a sudden the market realizes we are actually in a deep recession and reflect that in the numbers. Until then, the madness will continue.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors


Sunday, August 2, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 2nd



The market was able to bounce this week and regain its TA which positions the index to continue its rally towards ATH. I am not sure if prices will actually make it to new highs but at this point, it continues to look likely despite the fact we are in a recession and we have a once in a century pandemic. It will be interesting to see how all of this evolves in the next 12 months but my assumption continues to be a major, sudden sell-off in the not too distant future. If there is no reset in prices then it would mean the stock market is immune to the economy and that would be a total absurdity. I am sure the near zero interest rates and generous stimulus will help but at some point, reality must set in. 

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25






















The market reached a higher high this week at 3280 but ended up reversing most of its gains. Arguably, the pattern in place is bearish unless prices are able to make a higher this coming week. The Trend Average continues to be bullish but could turn bearish if support at 3200 is broken in the next few sessions. I still favor a challenge to all-time highs before a strong sell-off takes place so we'll see how things evolve. I remember making a big deal of the US surpassing China back in coronavirus cases (80,000 cases) back in March and assuming a historical sell-off would come around this time where we have north of 3 million cases but I was completely wrong on people acting rationally. Maybe the same crowd that panicked back in March when the US had a few thousand cases will all of a sudden wake up and realize how bad things really are.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 19th






















The market has continued to rally as expected and just needs to overcome resistance in the 3230-40 range to possibly breakout and challenge ATHs. In the meantime, the number of virus cases in the US is now out of control and there is simply no end in sight to this nightmare. The market continues to behave like the orange clown himself like nothing is happening but the inevitable will come. You simply can not deny a once in a 100-year pandemic! I read an interesting article on what JP Morgan is predicting and it just goes to show nobody knows anything at this point other than it will be bad no matter what.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/jamie-dimons-warning-for-the-us-economy.html

In the meantime, we just need to be patient and wait for a fast cure or vaccine.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 12th






















The market had another good week by closing up +4.01% and a new golden cross is officially in place. A continued rally towards all-time highs is now likely in the next few weeks but once it gets there I wonder if the fundamentals will finally catch up and drag everything back down. The virus situation is now at catastrophic levels and I don't know much more the market will ignore the fact that we are in a recession that will be long-lasting. Like I said last week, this is probably the ultimate sucker's rally as I think it's obvious a crash is coming.

Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Sunday, July 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 5th






















If someone would have asked me a few months ago if the market was going to be in rallying mode and set to challenge ATH during the peak of a pandemic, I would have said no way. But this is exactly what is happening now. The virus is going as strong as ever and there are parts in the country facing a healthcare collapse in the next few weeks. In addition, some states are rolling back the re-opening of the economy but the market behaves like it is 2019!! Maybe I am missing something but perhaps this is the ultimate sucker's rally as I don't see our economy generating the profits necessary to maintain a rising stock market. The only justification I can see is the fact that interest rates are close to zero and investors have nowhere to put their money but stocks and real estate. Perhaps, prices will reach new all-time highs soon and then selloff just like they did in March where amateur investors didn't have time to react. Crazy times we are living in!


Short Term Trendd = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 27






















The market has failed to get past resistance after an initially bullish open earlier this week and ended closing down -2.96%. I assume prices are going to test 2965 this coming week and if that level fails to hold then Adios! I've been saying for weeks if not months that the market has been disconnected from reality and perhaps some selling will reflect the record cases of the coronavirus in our country. The sad thing is that this is just barely getting started, this is like the 3rd inning and it seems a lot of people are still deluded into thinking we are going to be in a V shape recovery. The economies of red states with clown-like governors are going to pay the highest price, unfortunately. I have a cash war chest ready to buy of a panic sell-off like the one we saw in March. Now that the markers (support levels) are there, it's a little easier to take bigger risks. On another interesting, GREAT personal note. My birthday is coming up and today I logged on into a PayPal like account I use for receiving payments after a Russian programmer was asking me to use that service since PayPal is restricted in Russia. All along, I was thinking this service was directly depositing money to my bank account every time payments were sent there from buyers but NO. I logged in and discovered I had $111K sitting there!! lol. I thought it was maybe in another currency but it was all USD so I guess this was my birthday present!! Discovering money I didn't know I had. How this was able to accumulate to that level, I don't know but I am pretty happy now :)

Have a great (and safe) weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 20






















The market started the week with a lower low before going into a counter-rally that recouped some of its losses from last week's sell-off. Still, if prices fail to turn the TA bullish this coming week then we should see more selling ahead that will test the low made on Monday at 2965. Going by pattern alone, I do see a potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulder's if the market breaks resistance at 3155 so we will have to see which side has more conviction. Whatever the case, I continue to expect a sell-off related to the pandemic and the economy. These last few weeks could be all just a head-fake and all these people infected just sets the country up for a massive virus resurgence in the fall which obviously will make sure the recession continues. Right now, I don't think most people realize we are in a recession due to the massive stimulus but when that runs out then what? Also, a massive gathering of corona-breathing Trumpers in Oklahoma today will be like lighting a fire in a barn. I don't think anyone deserves to be sick but when they ignore the CDC guidelines and instead listen to a person who claims drinking Lysol might help then they'll just asking for it. Not to mention, they are required to sign a waiver to free the Trump campaign of any responsibility should they get sick or worst yet die. Have we ever seen a President this irresponsible? I think not and I hope Trump will be like the corona virus, a once in a 100 year event!

Have a great and safe weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish