Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 31st

 

The market lost -5.41% for the week and closed well below the 50 DMA at 3402. Failure to recapture lost ground this coming week will just add selling pressure and will likely push prices to test the 200 DMA at 3129. The most likely scenario, if the Trend Average is not recaptured soon, is a severe substantial selloff in the next week or two and the renewal of the bear market. I assume the next few months are going to be rough for the market and the country as a whole. But at least, hopefully, we won't have a clown as a president anymore. The potential for conflict and violence in the US is high given all the political rhetoric but I think in the end we will get through this. 

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 27th

 

Last week I added this note below on EWA:

"The market has struggled in the past few sessions and the short-term trend has turned bearish. This could be the very beginning of a significant top if prices fall below the 3400 level. However, if the market is able to turn around and make a higher high then it has a clear shot at making new all-time highs before the end of the multi-month rally."

The market has lost more ground since last week and now prices are below the 3400 level I mentioned so the probability of a major selloff looks increasingly likely soon, possibly this or next week. I can't imagine the clown actually conceding like a normal person after the results so I am going to assume he will be the cause for this coming selloff and bear market. The question is how bad is it going to get. Will he call on his supporters to start revolting or worse? will the national guard/military get involved? it sounds like a far-fetched scenario but considering what we have seen in the last 4 years, this scenario sounds likely. And obviously, we are also going to see horrible virus numbers so maybe that could move the market as well but I think the main cause will be the loser himself.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 17th

 

The market started the week strong and came within a few dozen points of an ATH but it struggled to hold on to gains for the rest of the week. If prices fail to make higher highs this coming week then it could turn bearish and start to sell-off substantially. But for now, the TA remains bullish and I will assume higher highs until 3340 is breached. We're a couple of weeks away from the elections and results should move the markets substantially. Also, the coronavirus is going to continue to surge to numbers not seen since the national peak in the spring and I wonder if the markets will continue to ignore the impact as it has done for the last few months. 

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 12th

 

The market has continued to make higher highs as expected and I think an ATH is in the cards this or next week as long as the Trend Average remains bullish. I wouldn't be surprised if prices go much higher if a viable coronavirus vaccine is announced before the elections. Whatever the case, I think the event that will be the excuse for a massive selloff will be the outcome of the elections. The Trump campaign is showing signs of desperation and the clown himself will refuse to acknowledge a loss. I think anyone who has been paying attention to what this man has done or said in the last 4 years would bet this is the most likely scenario and this will be uncharted territory for this country. Also, I wanted to add that USPS delays are a big problem and I wonder how this will factor into the result for the elections. I can tell you for a fact, that 20% of USPS First Class and Priority mail is getting lost or delayed for several weeks (normally, it takes 2-3 business days). I am not sure if this is particular to my region (California) or if it's nationwide. I send several thousand packages per month and the 20% loss/extremely late rate for the last few weeks doesn't seem to be getting better. So, unless ballots are given special handling (as they should), I don't see how we're going to have accurate results on Nov 3rd. The next few weeks are going to be interesting.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 6th

 

It seems like 7 months since last week's Trump-Biden debate instead of 7 days but we are now getting closer to election time and to possibly a significant top for the market. Prices have rallied quite a bit as expected since the 3209 low held up last week but we could see headwinds between now and the outcome of the elections. Surging corona virus cases, the contamination of the White House (and now the Pentagon) and even the clown himself hasn't done much damage to the market. But I continue to assume some election drama, like Trump's refusal to leave the WH could cause the market to collapse. We'll find out in the next few weeks. For now, the TA is bullish despite the sell-off today so I will assume higher highs and maybe even an ATH challenge as long as the TA remains bullish.

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

For detailed wave analysis visit http://ewaveanalytics.com

* Trends are not trading signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and do not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors