Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 25

The market closed the week down -1.32% but managed to maintain its TA positive. Still, price action continues to point to a bounce and we could see substantial selling resume soon, especially if resistance at 2950 is not breached. There is nothing fundamentally that justifies these price levels (just look at oil demand) and I think it's just a matter of time before equity prices reflect their true value. We are now in a global recession with a pandemic that is not going away until at least late 2021 if we are lucky so there are plenty of reasons for the next leg of the correction to come.

I will be updating on the weekends until my business situation stabilizes. I thought I would have plenty of time during the lockdown but I won't have spare time during the weekdays until I get the new staff fully trained. Maybe in another month I will be able to sit down at Starbucks again and have some coffee while I write! Stay safe and healthy!!

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 18

I hope everyone is staying safe and healthy during these challenging times. Again, I have not been able to sit down and update the blog because I have been stretched to the limit with work. Long gone are the days where I could just sit at Starbucks, relax and write. Now, I just work and work. In fact, I don't think I have worked this much since I quit corporate sales 20 years ago (can't believe its been 20 years!!). The difference is I work for myself now and make many times what I did back then so in the end it's all good. I am very fortunate to stay this busy considering the situation and I am using this experience to learn and grow the business.

Anyway, the market was able to overcome resistance at 2855 and invalidate a bearish pattern that had been forming. Also, prices were able to challenge and close above the 50 DMA for the first time in 2 months. However, the current rally remains a bounce from a steep sell-off and could soon resume selling once the rally exhaust itself. The next significant resistance level is 2950, which is technically not all that far from ATH. Last, but not least, the pattern in the market is that of a "megaphone top" which would line up well with an ongoing bear market. Some people might be thinking that we are going back to normal soon but we're nowhere near normal in the general sense. In fact, I am afraid we will be back in shelter at home mode by the end of the year, during December nonetheless so imagine what corporate earnings will be looking like then in a shrinking economy. We are going to be dealing with this well into 2021 if not 2022 and I am not so sure most people actually realize it.

Stay healthy and safe!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 8

Sorry for the long absence but I have been under crisis mode due to staff not coming to work because of the virus at my business.  However, I have managed to operate by adding new staff and doing a lot of the work myself so I am good for now. Anyway, the market did substantially go down after my last post but has since found a bottom and is now rallying towards the 2855 level I mentioned last week. This counter-rally has been expected and is really no more than a sucker's rally imo so I assume there will be a lot of big traders piling up to sell as prices get to resistance to make bag holders out of the unsuspecting retail investor/trader. Last week the number of infections was 100K, now is 400K and as I predicted weeks ago the numbers will be well over a million or in the millions. In fact, the policy of the US is to keep numbers "low" until a vaccine or cure is found so who knows what the ultimate number will be. We will be in a deep recession for a while for sure and I expect this bear market to last a while as prices for all assets will have to come down to the long term median. After all, this market had been extended for a long time and it was always a matter of when and not if for the bear market.

Stay healthy and safe!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 31

The market has traded within a range in the last few days and unless it is able to break out and rally towards 2855 soon then we might see substantial selling pressure. I am labeling this bounce a B or a W4 so I am expecting lower lows at some point. With the US having the most virus cases by far and now Trump saying keeping deaths at 100,000 thousand would be a "very good job", the really ugly numbers are coming out soon and I don't see how the current situation could hold prices at 2017 levels when everything was fine economically. I had been looking for a bear market for a long time but what is happening now is just terrible and I don't see this going away anytime soon.

Also, I am super short-staffed in my business so I don't have as much time to post. But I'll do my best.

Stay healthy and safe!

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking