Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 30

The market closed the week on a positive note and the TA is now back to bullish again. The high made today challenged resistance at 2943 and should this level break then will see a rally towards ATH. However, given the pattern, another strong bearish leg down would make more sense. Also, given the fact that the markets first recuperated early in the week over a phone call from China that Trump made up, I don't see how the situation over trade has changed from the time of the sell-off to now. Tariffs are being implemented and a recession is getting closer.

Have a great holiday weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 28

The market closed the day challenging the TA but so far the counter-rally has been weak and there should be another bearish leg starting soon. If selling stops at 2822 there is still the chance for a bottom but support is breached then we could see very strong selling ahead. I am putting most of my liquid money in tax free bonds in the meantime, decent tax free returns.

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 26

The market managed to counter-rally today after having a bearish opening in pre-market. Looking at the pattern and ignoring what the genius has been tweeting, it looks like there should be another strong bearish leg down after this sideways move is over. The upper band of this sideways pattern is 2943 so it is possible we see a rally continue until resistance is hit. Contradicting information by Trump is the perfect excuse to see this pattern develop as what he thinks and says on Friday is completely different to what he will say on Monday. Instead of trading waves, we could be trading his temper tantrums.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 23

Just as the TA had turned positive, Trump threw a temper tantrum today that changed all of that. Stable genius is upset the Fed is cutting rates when they feel like it (and not when he wants to) and China retaliating for tariffs he imposed on them. This sent markets into a steep sell-off and critical support at 2822 might break early next week, which could cause the type of selling we haven't seen in months. China's tariffs are on US oil, which hits Trump's political base. And the more he keeps at it, the less China will buy from the US in general, which hits many states that got him elected in the first  place. Trump should be smart enough to know (I have some doubts about it) that he will lose 2020 for sure unless he produces a trade deal and manages to convince the Fed to lower rates but attacking the Chinese president and Powell is not going to produce the results he wants. The guy is literally a man-child. I was thinking of jumping into the market briefly but after all of this today, I am putting all my cash in a 9 month CD.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 21

The market has been able to hold recent recent gains and has turned the TA bullish. This positions to market to rally in the next week or two and possibly challenge all-time highs. Obviously, this doesn't mean the recession fears have abated or that the China trade issue has been resolved. In fact, the yield curve inverted again today but traders ignored that this time. So it will possibly new highs again and then a nasty sell-off sooner than later. I might jump in on this rally.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 19

The market has continued to bounce and managed to close above the TA today. The coming correction will be the make or break for the uptrend that started in late May. If prices are able to hold above 2822 then we officially have a bottom and prices could rise to new ATH. But if support is broken then the high for the year is already in. I might trade this coming correction if I see a good entry point.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 16

The market closed the week in red again but managed to rally back somewhat in the last couple of sessions after succesfully testing the 2822 low. The successful test of support creates a potential bottoming pattern that would be confirmed if the TA turns bullish next week. I assume, if the TA turns bullish, that many will be using the rally to sell at resistance and or even go short. Resistance lies at 2944.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 14

The market had an ugly day today with prices down almost -3%. The bond yield curve sent panic through the markets but this should not have really come as a surprise as I mentioned this on the last update. And as I said on my last post, if support at 2822 fails then it will point to a likely nested bearish 1-2 with a lot more selling to come. Stable genius wants to meet with China's Xi and I am sure he is trying to do whatever he can to save face and come up with a "deal". Maybe there is some sort of agreement but I highly doubt China will make concessions, if anything, they will be backtrack even more now that it is obvious they have the stronger hand. They know Trump will soon be in panic mode and will do anything to dig himself out of the hole he made himself.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 12

The market closed substantially down today and it is make or break for the bulls at this point. If a strong selling wave comes soon then this is a nested bearish 1-2 that would leave 3027 as the likely high for the year. But if 2822 is able to hold the selling then we have a bottoming pattern in place and prices will likely reach a new high soon. Personally, I've been out of the market for months and not doing anything until there is more clarity. You have bond yields pointing to a recession and a very likely "no deal" with China this year.  This sets up the perfect background for a recession in 2020.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 9

The market managed to close the week slightly negative despite dipping to low 2800's earlier in the week. I was expecting a 5th leg to go below 2800 but the count did no materialize. Instead, we have a possible nested bearish 1-2 or a possible bottom at 2822 if a correction fails to break support. It's still too early to call for a bigger correction but the economic background is not looking as good as it did a few months ago. Calls for lower interest rates are a signal the government is getting worried.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 7

The market has rallied back in the past couple of sessions but not enough to invalidate the bearish pattern and count in place. If the labels are correct, we should see selling resume soon and possibly see the 200 DMA just under 2800 tested.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 5

The count pointed to lower lows this week but the market looks like is headed substantially lower. I guess bears should thank stable genius for this correction and the likely recession that is coming soon (if the trade issue isn't resolved ASAP). I mentioned last week China was not just going to give into Trump's demands and with his brilliant move of raising tariffs while negotiating (against his advisers wishes), he has managed to destroy whatever good will there was. China doesn't care because they are in the position of strength. They will soon have the largest economy and have the largest consumer market, they have little incentive to accommodate demands by a man-child.

Expect prices to go below the 200 DMA (2790) this week.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 2

The market fell below the 50 DMA today before bouncing back to close just above this trend line. Looking at the count, it lines up well with a bearish 5 count so we should see a new low next week if the count is correct. The big question is whether this is another minor correction or the beginning of a substantial correction.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 1

The TA was again whipsawed this week, a first double-whipsaw since I started using this signal and the market is now leaning bearish with substantial downside to come if prices fall below 2926. Like I said on my last post, I don't think China will be yielding much and more tariffs like the ones announced today will just accelerate the path towards recession. Trump is working hard at negotiating something that can no be negotiated and that is forcing China to change some of its laws. If the US was 50%+ of their export market it would make sense (Mexico capitulated to tariff threats in less than a week) but at 18%, it hurts but it's bearable. Also, how can you negotiate the fact that China is able to produce some goods more efficiently and cheaper than everybody else? trade deficits are as natural as income inequality. Some skills are better rewarded than others and it should be the market that decides not people in politics.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking