Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 31

The market made another lower low today and it closed the week below the 200 DMA. This makes a much stronger sell-off likely in the next week or two unless there is some sort of bullish miracle. Trump's surprise tariff hike on Mexico was the catalyst but it's not just Mexico in my opinion but his general way of conducting business. Mexico had been working on a free trade agreement that had been basically a done deal. If Trump is able to dishonor agreements whenever he feels like it, what incentive does China or any other country have to trust this man and make concessions? This trade war is looking like the reason the economy will go into a recession. The stock market will be the first to raise the red flag and a true bear market should confirm a downturn next year and hopefully the election of another President.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 30

The market bounced today but found resistance at old support (2801). I'd be surprised if the bounce manages to test the TA but we'll find out tomorrow. The market might be getting ready for a serious sell-off after the bounce is over to welcome June.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 29

The market broke support at 2801 and I think this makes the top official. I expect prices to lose the 200 DMA at 2776 and possibly turn the long term trend bearish in the next few weeks. The yield curve inversion, trade conflicts and summer are all reasons to stay away from equities. I sold everything today and will buy back the position eventually but for now I am mainly cash in my trading account. We'll see if a trump bear market will finally materialize!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 28

The market came really close to breaking 2801 support today and I think there is a high chance prices will go much lower soon. I thought maybe there was enough for one more rally but there is no reason for traders to jump in at this point so I guess we'll see just how strong the summer correction will be. Sell in May and go away!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 24

The market closed the week in a down note and the IHS pattern I had been following has turned into something else. The fact that the low from the sell-off yesterday was higher than 2801 is actually a good sign for bulls. But trade below the TA places selling pressure on the market and we could see support break next week. If prices manage to respect 2801 and 2804 then we might see another rally attempt. I am holding to my positions but will have to hedge the position if prices fall below support.

Have a great long weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 22

The market closed slightly down today but remains above the TA and another bullish day would turn the TA bullish. I think the whole trade war issue is the perfect excuse for a summer correction and even if we get another bullish run I doubt it can go much higher given the economic backdrop and seasonality. Still, I closed my shorts yesterday and added to longs with the stops at support. Maybe we'll see another attempt at new highs that will fall short?

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 20

The market closed down again today and below the TA so the bias continues to be bearish. However, I also see the right shoulder of the Inverted Head and Shoulders forming nicely so if support at that level holds then we will probably see a change in trend to the bullish side fairly soon. I might liquidate my shorts tomorrow depending 2825-2831 holds and might even go long given the risk/reward scenario.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 16

The market was able to close above the TA for the first time in couple of weeks and now that there is a bottom pattern in place we could see a rally attempt in the next few sessions. I will be covering my short from couple of weeks if the TA turns bullish or if I see key support holding. In fact, I might even add to longs using support as stops given the risk/reward.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 13

The market had another bad day and looks headed towards a test of the 200 DMA at 2775. The issue of tariffs in on everyone's mind and for good reason since this issue could derail an otherwise pretty healthy economy. Maybe trade wars are not that easy after all! lol. I was hoping a recession would come later in 2020 but if it comes sooner I won't complain. It's time for lots of overpriced stocks and assets to deflate.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 10

Markets made lower lows today below the 50 DMA but were able to reverse all losses by the end of the day. Still, the market was down -2.18% for the week and there is still the possibility of another low next week. Whether the current correction is China related or just seasonal (Sell in May and go away!) is up to debate but we could be seeing the beginning of the summer correction. Now, on the issue of China. The US has the leverage of being the largest importer in the world and in that sense is able to dictate some terms. China wants to sell in the US and it doesn't want to damage its standing as the largest exporter in the world. At the same time, China grows as twice the rate of the US, sometimes it's triple the rate and it's just a matter of time (less than 5 years) before China becomes the largest importing country in the world and at that time, the US will need access to China more so than right now. China is not going to just concede advantages to the US which forces them to do the same for other countries. After all, the US is a bit under 20% of their total exports so it's a substantial chunk but not necessarily the main market. Trump wants immediate results, China looks 10, 20 or even 50 years down the road so I think in the end this issue will not be resolved in the way Trump hopes for. Maybe, this trade issue and the tariffs (basically a 25% tax on American consumers) will be the catalyst for a long awaited bear market or even a recession. This ultimately benefits traders who have been waiting for a long time (me) for assets to come down. I have been accumulating cash and I am ready to buy more China stocks and/or US real state and stocks during a bear market.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 9

The market made lower lows yesterday and now risks losing the 50 DMA. Traders are all focusing on the trade tariffs and it's impossible to tell at the moment if the bearish move this week has been just another correction or the beginning of a much bigger sell off. Personally, I think China and Trump are just negotiating as usual. China apparently interpreted Trump's call for a reduction of interest rates recently as a sign of weakness and they are playing on that. They are testing Trump.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 7

The market sold off today and support was easily broken so I am assuming the all-time high at 2954 is a top unless the market is able to recapture the TA again. The volatility started yesterday but the bearish pattern was actually in place last week when the TA went bearish so not sure if what we are seeing now is pure coincidence or the market destiny playing itself out! Lol. Whatever the case, I am keeping my short position until I see a bottom pattern or the TA turn bullish.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 6

The market had a wild day today after Trump announcing possible tariffs on China but at the end of the day most losses had been reversed. Still, the TA continues to be bearish and failure to make higher highs sets up the market for lower lows. A break of 2891 would confirm a likely top.



Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 2

The market made lower lows today and has turned its TA bearish. While the uptrend that started at 2891 still has a chance of resuming in the next few days, the TA is pointing to a breach of this pivot if 2926 is not recaptured. I shorted an amount equal to my long position (mostly for tax efficiency) and will keep it for as long as the TA remains bearish.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 1

The market made another all-time today before giving up all gains in the last hour after the Fed announcement. The uptrend technically remains in place but unless the bearish closing pattern from today is not reversed, we could see a change in trend in the next few days. The market has rallied without much of a break since March and now that we are in May and with new ATH, maybe it is time to start taking profits.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking