Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 29

Prices rose to test the TA after all before reversing towards the end of the session. The bias continues to be bearish going into next week but it's important to point out a possible bottom pattern in place if 2692 is not taken out soon. The high today could be a neckline for an IHS targeting 2800 so bearish bets need to keep that scenario in mind. I am all cash and waiting for a trade set up.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 28

The market made a slightly lower low today but managed to stage a counter-rally. Still, I doubt the TA will be tested on this one but we'll see. Trump is softening his tone on China so that helps the market temporarily but the damage has already been done. The question is whether we will finally see a death cross in the next few months.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 27

The market ended down after reversing all of its earlier gains. Technically speaking, the market could use the test of yesterday's lows to form a double bottom but given the how gains were sold into today, I think the bulk of the selling is yet to come. Stable genius antics and seasonality favors a lot more downside at this point.


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 26

Prices counter-rallied today and closed the session slightly positive. However, I doubt there is enough strength to test the TA so I assume there will be more selling ahead. The next significant level of support is 2676 and we could see the market form a H&S pattern if that support level is tested successfully. That would an easy low risk bearish trade set up if it forms.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 25

The market went into sell-off mode today as expected and I think this is just getting started. With new potential restrictions on China being announced and now seeing some of the consequences of these tariffs (Harley Davison moving factories to Europe to bypass tariffs), bears can easily have feast. The upside to this is that stocks will become cheaper so this will be an opportunity to get in, specially if we have people with basic common sense running the country in 2020. For now, I think it's time to start anticipating a bear market and a recession.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 22

Prices closed slightly up today after a weak counter-rally and it looks like lower prices are coming early next week. With the announcement of tariffs in the EU and more potential tariffs by stable genius, the markets now have a good reason to sell off. Technically, there is no end in sight as the genius is bypassing the WTO (which has been in place since 1948 to solve trade disputes) and going by his gut feeling. The result if this succeeds or fails is basically the same, substantial inflation ahead by way of more tariffs on products we all buy from abroad or products made in the US inflated by severe labor market pressure. I normally don't want time to go by fast as I am in my 40's but I can't wait for 2020 for someone else to be President, even if they take my tax cuts away.


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 21

Prices closed down today as expected and I assume the low made on Monday will be tested if not broken in the days ahead. Too early to get excited if you are betting on the bearish side but I still don't see how the market is going to go higher given the trade war news. I supposed if they backtrack then it will be bullish news but for now this is a cloud over the market that will not be easily shaken off.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 20

The market continued its counter-rally today to test resistance and the Trend Avg at 2775. If prices are able to overcome the TA then it has a chance of regaining its previously bullish bias but I continue to assume lower prices ahead as long as the TA is negative.

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 19

Prices gapped down today to a lower low before bouncing somewhat the rest of the session. This close turns the Trend Average bearish and I assume there will be substantial downside ahead. It is still too early to call for a top for the year and the weekly charts does point to a higher high in the future. However, as long as the trade war is in the background, I can't imagine the market able to overcome that. After all, the strongest profit growth for the SP500 comes from abroad and if the US becomes more isolated, that growth will not be there. One could argue the stronger domestic economy will make up for loss overseas profits but I don't think it will be sustainable. The Trump tax cuts were great for the economy, but this trade policy will drive us into a recession. Economy aside, I am still in disbelief at the systematic child abuse implemented at the border by Trump and his administration. Hitler would be proud of him!


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 18

The market made a lower low today and the close was below the Trend Average for the first time since late May. So it seems the top is likely in for a while if we start to see stronger selling in the days ahead. Considering Trump is playing hardball with China and seemingly everyone else (he forgets there is a WTO in place for trade disputes), this all points to a bad news in the not too distant future and the market is going to reflect that. Trade wars are not "easy to win" and once we go into a recession Mr stable genius will blame Obama or Hillary.

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 15

The market opened down today after Trump announced tariffs on Chinese products. Normally, this would have caused a much bigger correction but the market managed to test the TA and close right above it. I still think there is enough strength for the market to go above 2800 but in light of the coming trade war with just about everybody, I don't know how the market is going to overcome the fundamental shift that a trade war implies. It is not only about the fact that trade will be down but that American multi-nationals will be making less money due to barriers being created in retaliation, thus less profits. But the Donald knows everything, so just let him shoot himself in the foot and guarantee an economic recession before 2020. After all, we do need a bear market correction.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 14

The market has continued its sideways correction and it is looking like it wants to challenge resistance again before a deeper pullback. Considering the Nasdaq and the Russell have been making new all-time highs, we should see a break out in the next few sessions as long as the TA remains bullish.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 13

The market made a marginally higher high but could not get past the resistance band. The count is technically finished so we could now see a stronger correction unless bulls can pull one out of the hat tomorrow. Whatever the case, the TA is bullish and a successful test would point to higher highs coming.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 12

Prices did not break out after yesterday's seemingly succesful Trump-Kim summit and instead prices went into a sideways correction. However, we could see a rally attempt tomorrow or Thursday at the latest to break resistance. If bulls fail at it, we could see a substantial correction but for now my assumption is that resistance won't stop the rally.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 11

The market made a push towards the 2790-2800 resistance level as expected and a positive meeting between Trump and Kim might be the excuse to break this level tomorrow. And as I said last week, a break of 2801 will open the doors to new ATH for the market and possibly a rally towards the 3K level.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 8

The market closed the week on a strong note and we could see prices challenge resistance early next week. Iif prices are able to get past 2801, the natural target will be the ATH at 2872. Also, looking at weekly charts, I see a W4 type of correction nearing completion which suggests another bullish period for the next few months for a rally towards 3000. So this bull market seems to have some more time to run before a real bear market.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 7

The market went into a mild correction today and seems to be consolidating before getting ready to challenge the next level of resistance at 2790-2800. Given the new all-time highs in the RUT and NASDAQ indexes, I think bulls might pull one out of the hat and reach a new ATH in the summer. We'll find out soon.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 6

Prices continued to rise as expected and we could see the 2790-2800 resistance area tested soon. Resistance at 2801 is technically the bears last stand as a breach of this level would open up the doors to a continued rally towards all-time highs. A few months ago, the death cross seemed highly likely during summer but with this recent upsurge, bulls have again defied expectations.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 5

The market made a higher high today early in the morning before giving up some of its gains. However, the wave doesn't look done yet so we should see higher prices again in the next session or two. The Nasdaq and Russell indexes have made new all-time highs, invalidating the intermediate their bearish patterns so we might see the SP500 do the same in the next few weeks.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 4

Prices have continue to rise as expected and we should see the breakout continue in the next few sessions. It's hard to tell prices will manage to go after new ATH but we should see the 2800 level challenged this month if the pattern plays out.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 1

The market gapped up in the morning after the strong jobs reports and now we have an IHS pattern targeting 2790. So unless there is some bearish miracle over the weekend, we should see a break out next week to higher highs. Maybe the resumption of the meeting with N Korea will be the excuse?

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking