Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 30

Last week I posted after the Brexit vote "Once people stop panicking (not us obviously since we've been anticipating this), the market will have corrected enough to launch a new rally to new all time highs". The market has continued to rally in a micro-w3 and looks like it has more to go before any significant correction. At the daily level, it is clear there is a trend reversal in place given the "three white soldiers" pattern. So unless there's some sort of bearish miracle in the works, there is a high chance this current wave is going towards a challenge to recent highs and perhaps the all time high at 2134. Once a new high is imminent, I'll be able to start working on a target for this last leg of the bull market that started in 2009.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 29

The counter rally continued today and I think we can safely say the bottom is in for the post-Brexit sell off. Obviously, this doesn't mean we can't see another zig zag develop but as of now, we have a zig zag complete from the 2120 high. A completion of the micro-count would solidify the bullish case and turn the Trend Average bullish again. I was hoping the lower end of the initial target for the correction was going to be tested but it did not. So I will be going long on the coming correction and use 1991 as the stop. The next intermediate wave could turn out to be a bullish W3 so this might be the last chance to get on board.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 28

The market staged a strong counter rally today by closing comfortably above its 200 DMA. Still, I wouldn't call this the end of the downtrend just yet until I see further evidence of a bottom. So far there seems to be a double bottom at 1991 but we need to see confirmation on the next pullback. If this level holds then we should see a rally to the Trend Average at the very least. I was hoping to see the 1950-1965 area so I could go long but I might end up using 1991 as my reference point instead to build my positions. If the market is able to recapture the Trend Average, we could see the initial stages of the next bullish leg to challenge all time highs. In fact, prices might not be this low for a while if all the trends go back to bullish. As I said a few weeks ago, Brexit provides the perfect excuse to leave interest rates as is and that provides the perfect excuse to rally the rest of the year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 27

Selling continued today and prices easily sliced through the 2025 and the 200 DMA support levels. The market found support in the equivalent area of Thursday night's after hours low but I favor further selling until the 1950-1965 support levels gets tested. I am still on the sidelines waiting to go long near support or if I see a bottoming pattern.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 24

Yesterday I posted "My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.".  Brexit won and the market reacted accordingly by plunging as much as 100+ points in pre-market before bouncing somewhat in the cash market. It's hard to tell if the pre-market low equivalent in cash will be revisited (2000) but there is still a favorable chance the 2020-2025 level will be tested. If that support level fails to hold, we might see selling until 1965. Once people stop panicking (not us obviously since we've been anticipating this), the market will have corrected enough to launch a new rally to new all time highs.

The exit of the UK from the EU should not have been that much of a shock in my opinion. Countries in Europe have clear differences that have made them nation-states for hundreds of years. The idea of taking sovereignty from these countries to form a Federal system has always been an ambitious experiment. Now the EU is like a table with three legs and some of the wealthier countries might follow the UK soon, especially if they see the UK survive the ordeal. I am sure there will be economic consequences but in the end the UK will be just like Switzerland. The Swiss have done well despite never joining the EU and seem content with their country as is.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23

The market rallied substantially today in anticipation of a favorable outcome to the Brexit vote. At the same time, there is now a 5 count completed from the 2050 low which implies a coming correction. While the market closed above the Trend Average, a bearish wave to the 2025 level would be ideal. Only if the market is able to go above 2120 will the short term bearish bias will be eliminated.

As of the time of this post, the "Brexit" side has a sizable early lead and equity futures are selling off. My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.

I was checking on Zillow the price of my house and it has gone up almost 50% in 4 years. This would have never been possible had rates been at a normal level, instead these ultra low interest rates have fueled a rally in assets like homes and equities and unfortunately (or fortunately if you have been building capital) there will be a wake up call sooner than later. I think a good 50% correction from whenever the top is for the wave structure that started in 2009 would reset the currently artificially boosted market. Also, a good 25-35% correction in house prices would be great too as I'd like to buy a second home :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 22

The market challenged the 2100 high today but fell short of making a new high. One could interpret the micro-count as a flat, a truncated 5th, or a bearish 1-2 set up so reading waves doesn't do any good as far as trading set ups goes. However, we should get a clearer picture tomorrow on what the market is going to do next. What happens to the UK in regards to the EU will be the excuse to move prices either way.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 21

Not much to report on today's price movement. The count remains the same and I'm just looking for confirmation of a 5th wave for the micro-count or the start of another bearish leg to test the 2025 level. I sold the rest of my long positions so I am now back to waiting on another trade set up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 20

The market broke out of its Diamond Pattern this morning and reached the expected target at 2100 before pulling back for the rest of the day. Prices followed the plan I speculated about last week by going for a lower low at 2050 and then rallying back to test the TA. Now the question is whether buying momentum can be maintained. If the micro-count turns into a 5 wave count, then the correction could be done and we could see highs for the year challenged soon. However, if the current wave turns out to be an zig zag, then we should see another leg that will take the market down to 2025.  The level I am watching is 2079.62 as a breach of this level would imply more selling ahead. I sold half my long positions at the open as planned and I raised my stops on the rest to 2079.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 17

The market went into consolidation mode today and there is arguably a Diamond Bottom pattern in place. We'd have to see a decisive move above 2079.62 to confirm the pattern and would imply a target of 2100. At the same time, if prices break below 2062.84 then the pattern is eliminated and the low set yesterday would be tested. Since the Trend Average hasn't been tested yet, I favor a bullish break out of the pattern. I raised my stop to 2062 and still looking to start selling on a TA test. Ideally, we'd see the counter-rally exhaust and then another wave to take the market to the 2025 level.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 16

The market made a lower low and tested the 2050 level as expected before rallying for the rest of the day to end in positive territory. The next level of significant resistance is 2085 and I am assuming the Trend Average will tested around that level. What happens after that test remains to be seen as the selling will continue if the TA remains bearish. I ended up going long near support as planned and I already raised my stop to break even. I will start selling half or all at 2085 or the TA.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 15

Prices jumped early in the morning only to sell off in the last hour of trading. The pattern lines up with a 5 count that will end up making a lower low in the next day or two. And as I said couple of days ago, a test of the 2050 support level would be ideal for the count to finish and then have a rally to test the declining Trend Average. I will go long if I see the 5 count complete and will be using support as my stop.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 14

Prices made a lower low as expected and could see one more bearish wave to complete a 5 count tomorrow. Arguably, the structure could have been completed today at 2064.10 but it would look much better with another wave to test the 2050 level. The market is oversold at this point and could see a strong counter-rally once a bottom is found. I might take a long position near support in expectations of a Trend Average test.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 13

The sell off continued today and the market closed below the 2085 support level. While a bounce could occur in the next sessions or two, the next level of significant support is around the 2050 level and 2025. So we could see selling accelerate until a floor is found for a counter-rally. I will go long if the 2025 level gets tested and will use the 200 DMA as the stop.

National mood is obviously affecting the market after what happened in Orlando. It is very clear to me that ISIS is waging a war against us by producing propaganda for susceptible idiots here to consume and launch these types of attacks. A terrorist doesn't need to go to Iraq to train, all they need is an internet connection to be radicalized. So I hope Obama and the next President identifies the root of the problem and eradicates it. Obama keeps on talking about Muslims when the problem is ISIS and Al Qaeda. These groups need to be dealt with (and not with Obama's wishy washy strategy) and destroyed or they will keep doing this to us.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 10

The market sold off early in the morning today confirming the count I was following was finished at 2120. There is a clear 5 wave count from the 1810 low in February and unless the 5th wave of this structure that started at 2025 extends, we should see a correction take place in the next few weeks. A good target for this multi-week correction is 2025 or 1950 on the lower end. I will be getting ready to add long positions on this coming pullback as what would come next is a W3 that will last several months.

Whoever ends up being President will get the blame for the next bear market. Now that is down to Trump and Hilary, my guess is the clown will end up winning. Hilary has so much baggage that Trump is going to have a field day with her. Also, the fact that Trump can say whatever he wants while Hilary can't because she can't be perceived as getting as low as Trump gives him an advantage in this coming record negative presidential campaign. The presidential debates are definitely going to be entertaining.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 9

The market did not rally as I had been expecting and instead went into a correction to consolidate recent gains. Still, the count remains in place until a new high is made for the year or 2105 fails to hold. It would be a lot easier if a new all time high is made so I can start working on a projection for this final bullish wave from the count that started in 2009.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 8

The market made a slightly higher high today despite short term oscillators resetting themselves. If the 2112.74 low doesn't get breached in pre-market or during cash hours,  we could see a gap up or a rally towards the all time high as soon as tomorrow. I assume once the market gets past the next levels of resistance, we'll see a break out just from short covering. The correction during the last year had a lot of bears and traders positioned for a bear market and a new all time high basically is a sign for them to throw in the towel.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 7

The micro w3 of w5 seems to be evolving with today's higher high and continued upside tomorrow would confirm the count. There is the possibility the structure is finished but it would be much nicer if we had a clear count so we can predict what to expect with more clarity. The Trend Average is approaching 2100 so we will either see a correction or a new all time highs in the next week or two.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 6

A little over a month ago I mentioned the 2111 level as a likely target for the rally and the market not only challenged this level today but made a higher high at 2113. And if 2116 gets taken out in a micro-w3 of w5, then we will see a run towards the all time high at 2134. The jobs report is serving as the excuse to fuel to the rally and now that Yellen has given a warning on a hit  to the US economy if the UK exits the EU, I can see a big rally if the UK decides to leave the EU. A Brexit would mean there would not be any more rate increases this year. So the bias is is bullish and there is the potential of a break out fairly soon. I think where things will get tricky is when the economy does fall into a recession as the options to stimulate the economy in a low interest rate environment are limited.

Lastly, R.I.P Muhamad Ali. I was too young to watch his fights live but watching them now on YouTube, I can appreciate how good this guy really was.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 3

The potential sub-division of the micro-5th wave I was looking for yesterday was voided with today's gap down opening. I was hoping the market would go down in a correction to test the Trend Average but instead the TA has caught up with the market and longer term oscillator have been resetting. I am not sure if we will see a bigger pullback next week or if the market is done with its "correction" but the bias is bullish and higher highs should come in the next week or two. Also, the bad jobs reports this morning serves as an excuse to freeze rate rises by the Feds which in turn adds to the bullish momentum in the market.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 2

The market closed at a higher high and it now seems headed towards a challenge to the 2111 level. I had to shift the labels to adjust the micro-count to reflect the low yesterday as a W4. And again, while this count could technically be completed because of today's higher high, if the wave from 2085 to 2100 is a W1 of a W5, then the target is 2120-2125.

I know a lot of bears have been getting screwed by the "bear market" but this whole thing had been expected. The LT-W4 correction has had enough to time to reset long term oscillators and we should see the all time highs get taken out fairly soon as long the Trend Average stays bullish. I'll take a short position towards a push to resistance to profit from a correction but then I will go long again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 1

The market broke the 2087 level I mentioned yesterday early in the morning before bouncing back for the rest of the day. I was hoping for a test of the 2011 resistance but the lower low today increases the possibility of the 5 count being completed. So I'll assume there will be a correction to test the rising Trend Average before we see higher highs for the year. I sold my long position at the end of the day for a minor profit and looking to buy back on the pullback.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.