Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 31

The correction continued today but a higher high should come once the short term oscillators are reset. As it is, the SP500 managed to close this quarter with a gain and the DJIA made its biggest quarterly reversal since 1933. It's too early to tell what sort of pullback we will eventually get for the wave structure that started at 1810 but this strong move in the last 6 weeks points to the beginning of a larger bullish wave to new ATH with or without a correction. I think the "true" top for the entire rally from 2009 will come after a new President is sworn in. Given the high probability that it will be either Hilary or Trump, we should get a recession and much deeper sell off to coincide with their Presidency. A recession and a sell off because of Trump makes a lot of sense given the fact that he is more circus than Presidential material (I do however love his tax plan). A Hilary Presidency would definitely be more stable but those high taxes are a drag on the economy. I just hope she doesn't come up with new social programs/bureaucracies and start taxing even more if she wins. T

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 30

As suspected, the wave from yesterday has evolved into a W3 and the next resistance level at 2076 is expected to be challenged. I assume the area from 2076 to 2134 will be hard to clear without a meaningful correction but given the fact equities have been in a correction for almost a year, we could see prices slice through these levels. The bottom line is higher highs should be expected and the LT W5 scenario is now looking very likely.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 29

Yesterday's high was breached once Yellen spoke and the bearish set up from yesterday is now looking very questionable. If there is a higher high tomorrow then we could see the wave from today turn into a bullish W3. I started a short position before the run up in the morning with a stop at 2056 and unfortunately it looks like I will stop out. At least the downside is minimal given where I bought, this is why I like these clear resistance levels.


For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 28

The market didn't do much today but managed to end up the day slightly positive. If the high from today is not breached by tomorrow, selling will most likely resume and the 200 DMA will likely be challenged again. I was thinking of going short today but I was just too busy with work so maybe I'll get a chance tomorrow.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 24

The selling continued today and put in a lower low just barely above the 200 DMA before reversing the rest of the day to erase most losses. The micro-wave structure looks like an ABC, so I'll assume it will be some sort of zig zag correction until proven otherwise.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 23

The count seems to have completed with yesterday's high and we might be seeing the beginning of a correction for the entire structure from 1810 to 2055. Assuming there will be no further highs, a pullback to test the 50 DMA currently at 1939 would be reasonable. However, if the 200 DMA at 2017 holds the correction then we should see higher highs in the short term. I might go short with a stop at 2055 on the bounce but still need to see how the counter-rally evolves.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 22

Another high was made today despite the unfortunate events in Europe. However, the 2043 low was breached and today's higher high could be the top of the count posted. With that said, if the 2040 low from today stays intact, then we could see a micro 5 count evolve to challenge multi-month resistance at 2076.

I was planning to go to Europe in the summer this year but with all these attacks and uncovered terrorists cells, I think I will just head to the Caribean or somewhere domestically (maybe Hawaii?).  ISIS is sending terrorists to the west and continues to plan attacks as a way to fight a "war" against the west and until they are faced head on, these attacks will continue. I remember an interview where General Schwarzkopf (commander of the first Persian Gulf War) questioned why Bush Sr did not push all the way to Baghdad to take out Saddam Hussein and what we are seeing today is the obvious answer. These regions need dictators to keep the extreme elements in check and not democracy.  And the ongoing mess in the Middle East is a reflection of failures by Bush Jr and Obama's administration to understand the fact that democracy is not meant for everyone.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.
 

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 21

The small correction from Friday continued for most of the day today but the wave made a higher high at 2054 in what I expect to be another impulse. We should see another rally tomorrow or Wednesday as long as 2043.14 doesn't get breached. Also, the 5th wave for the entire structure from 1810 is about to run out of waves so if the rally persists, I will be changing the labels to a nested 1-2 set up where the current wave is a W3 of a W3. I know it's hard for some skeptics to accept the fact that new all time highs could be made but the rally in oil along with a weaker dollar provides enough of an excuse for the rally to continue.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 18

The market technically went into a "correction" today but looking at the structure I can see even more upside ahead before any significant pullback. There is plenty of resistance between 2076 and 2116 and that would be an ideal place for some sort of top. Also, they serve as ideal levels to go short or hedge for an expected pullback to the 50 DMA. Now, this assumes the 5th wave posted is in play. If the current wave is indeed a bullish W3, then I'd expect the pullback to test the 200 DMA after the top but that's about it.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 17

Yesterday I posted "the count could be correct and currently completing or this is just about to shoot way up". Today I am starting to lean towards the market going towards the 2100 level given the huge day in transports. In the most recent corrective cycle, transports was the first index to break down and now it is the strongest performing index. I mentioned last week that if the 200 DMA was re-captured there would be a good possibility of the market turning its long term trend to the bullish side and it seems like this will be the case. Lastly, oil has hit $40 as I speculated about over a month ago and stability there will provide the perfect excuse for a turn in sentiment.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 16

A new high was made again as expected but I think there is still more upside ahead. Like I said yesterday, the posted count could be correct and currently completing or this is just about to shoot way up. The most bullish count has the current move as part of a nested 1-2, with W2 at 1890 so this count would easily take the market to new highs in a fairly short time.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.
 

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 15

A lower low was made today but the same bias continues. It seems the wave from the (iv) is not done and we could see a rally as soon as tomorrow if today's low holds. And again, this 5th wave could turn into a bullish W3 if we use the most bullish count so if you are shorting keep that in mind.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 14

The market made a slightly higher high at 2024 but it looks like it is getting ready to go higher. The current count posted has the current short term wave as the end of a 5 wave count from 1810. This count has predicted the rally accurately for the past month. However, there is a substantial possibility of a bullish nested 1-2 in the works and if we could see a strong rally without any corrections in the next few sessions. I'm sticking to the current count for now but will change it to reflect the more bullish count if there is confirmation.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 11

The SP500 finally made a direct challenge to the 200 DMA as I had been expecting for quite some time and the next week or two will prove pivotal to the long term trend. The market has rallied for almost 12% in just one month and as I pointed out on my long term chart on posted February 12th, there is a good probability this could be the initial stages of a LT W5. I know it's hard for some people to imagine the market going higher but the long term chart has worked very well for the past 5 years in giving an overall direction for the market. So until proven wrong, I will assume new all time highs are coming in the not too distant future. A top for the entire rally from 2009 would be ideal in the first year of the next Presidency. Who gets the blame for the next recession will probably be between Hilary and Trump.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 10

The W4 remains a possibility but it will start looking suspect if we don't see a rally tomorrow. Considering recent advances in oil and the aggressive QE the EU is implementing, I'm surprised the market didn't gain traction today. So failure to complete the 5 wave count will lead to a bigger correction, perhaps to the 1931 level.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 9

The market looks like it is finalizing a short term correction and we should see another bullish leg to complete the 5 wave count as soon as tomorrow. Oil rallied back to the $38 level today and we should see some of that bullishness help equities in the next couple of days.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 8

The correction continued today but the count remains the same with the expectation of a higher high that could challenge the 200 DMA. The count would be invalidated only if prices go below the 1961 level. I might attempt a short if the market makes it to 2020 with the expectation of a TA test.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.