Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 30

The 200 DMA got very close to be being tested today and I see a bottoming pattern in place (as long as 2,056 does not get breached), so we could start seeing a counter rally to test the TA starting tomorrow. Greece continues to dominate headlines but I think the market is starting to accept the outcome after the initial shock reaction. And if the Greeks can somehow pull something out of nowhere and get more time then that will be the perfect excuse to resume the rally. This market might or might not pull back 10% but one thing that seems likely to me is the long term rally will continue to go on until the next recession (and Greece will not be the cause of it).

Lastly, China seems to have found a bottom (it rallied 9% from yesterday's lows). If buyers start piling in now, then that market should reach a new high later in July or August and then I can finally start locking in profits. The good thing about the Chinese market now is that it trades completely on momentum, which favors the wave counting approach.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 29

Greece's decision to go into default had a strong impact on markets around the world. I think up until later last week the consensus was Greece and the EU were going to reach a deal and markets reflected that. This event is in a way unexpected and this is why all the bullish signs from last week have now been reversed. Elliott Wave counts and technical analysis have their limitations imo, one of them being not being able to predict actual events. So now that the market has reversed course, the Head and Shoulder's like formation is in play and is targeting 2010. Sell in May has again proven to be the best thing to do. I sold my oil position at a loss and keeping only my long term positions in China.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 26

The market had one more bearish wave left in it and it seems like this wave structure bottomed today at 2095. Other than that, there's not much to add as my expectations are the same as yesterday. Perhaps the Greeks will give in to EU demands over the weekend and create the catalyst for the expected rally. Technically speaking, Greeks are sort of screwed either way. If they don't do what the EU wants, then they will have no option but cut back on spending since they won't have enough money to fund all the things they want and people will be paid in Dracmas instead of Euros (guaranteed devaluation). At the same time, if they agree to EU terms (which is to cut back spending), they will be getting more money so they can keep paying loans. Good times have a price and now is time to pay unfortunately.

The other news that concerns me more tis the plunge in China shares. Unfortunately, I didn't get the H&S I was hoping for and instead I am seeing a potential 1 wave correction or worst yet a zig zag to test its 200 DMA. Whichever the case, its hard to see your account go down substantially in 1 day but considering this was all expected, it's technically not that big of a deal. I just hope I can get to my retirement goal by the end of this year. As it is, the SSEC is a year ahead of my break out projections.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 25

The market has completed a bearish 5 wave count today and we should see an attempt to rally as soon as tomorrow. Whether there is a counter-rally or an impulsive rally to new all time highs remains to be seen. Also, the markets closed under the TA and the 50 DMA today but I continue to expect to a challenge to all time highs after the correction is over.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 24

The market continued its correction today to test the Trend Average and I'm expecting a challenge to all time highs in the next few sessions. The news of Greece and the EU not reaching a deal doesn't seem to have damaged sentiment much, but we'll see if there is further reaction tomorrow. The NASDAQ opened today at an all time high before reversing and small caps reached an all time high yesterday, so I'm assuming the broader market will join the rally soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23

The market continued its "correction" today and it now looks like we will see new all time highs as soon as this week. Also, all trends are now back to green and oscillators have reset enough for a new rally. Still, there is the bearish topping pattern in place but it is not looking very favorable given current sentiment in the markets. I read today that it's been over 1350 days since the SP500 has experienced a 10% correction and it seems the only way this market will finally correct 10% is when we get the next recession.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 22

The market made a higher high today and the count I had on Friday has clearly evolved into a 5 wave count.  Also, key resistance at 2120-2125 is being challenged again and should the market break today's high tomorrow we will see new all time highs on a new multi-week rally. The bearish pattern I mentioned last week remains in place but will be eliminated if an all time high is reached. The Greek debt negotiations might provide the catalyst for the new rally as sentiment will shift to the bullish side again if they find a resolution.

I'm holding to VXX but looking to sell if the bearish pattern is eliminated or on a coming correction. Makes me wonder just how much longer will the long term trend stay bullish for, at this rate I won't be surprised if it ends up lasting 4 years.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 19

The market pulled back as expected today and we should see a decisive move in the next few sessions that will set market direction for the rest of the summer. Again, the 2120-2125 level offers strong resistance and if bulls can clear that then we should see a rally for few weeks. But if that level holds and the market goes back under the Trend Average, we should see a test of the 200 DMA (2050) at a minimum. Bullish factors to consider going into the weekend is the new daily MACD cross and the fact the TA turned bullish today.

The Greece situation could provide a catalyst to investor sentiment in the next few weeks. Also, China is making a correction already so maybe that could affect sentiment as well? I am holding on to all my positions and considering a position trade on my China shares. I am tempted to switch my China A shares for HK traded H shares, which are substantially undervalued. At this point the best possible outcome is an H&S formation in China so I can exit on the right shoulder and then buy back 15-20% lower. I made it as close as 91% to my retirement goal but now I'm back to 80%. I'm hoping I can get this done by this year, we'll see.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 18

The market is now challenging the 2120-2125 resistance level as I had been expecting and it is  crucial for bulls to make their case or risk substantial downside. The pattern I put up a few days ago is in play, so we'll just have to wait and see what is the bearish response. I am assuming the TA will be tested but if prices fall well below the TA then we will see 2072 tested again. With that said, the daily MACD is making a bullish cross and the TA is now back to green so oscillators and trends are favoring bulls but patterns favors further downside as long as the H&S like pattern doesn't get invalidated. I ended up buying back the VXX I sold a few weeks ago so hopefully it will do better this time.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 17

The market reacted somewhat positively to the statement by the Feds on interest rates and was able to climb above the TA. However, the 50 DMA is still holding (2104) and unless this is a bullish 1-2 set up, the wave pattern favors renewed selling soon. The 2120-2125 area still looks like a good area for the rally to stop but I'm not so sure there is enough momentum to get there.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 16

The market rallied today as expected but we might start seeing weakness again now that the Trend Average was tested. The next couple of waves should gives us a sense of direction for the rest of the month and it comes down to how the next levels of resistance hold. Given how weak market momentum has been this year, a good correction would actually help the bullish case in the long run. There are lots of buyers on the sidelines just waiting for the market to go on "sale", the market just needs a doze of pessimism.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 15

We had a substantial sell off early morning that ended up testing the 2072 low thanks to the ongoing Greek debt negotiations. However, the wave managed to put a higher low so technically speaking we can still expect a wave to challenge the 2120-2125 level. Looking at the pattern on a longer time frame, I see a topping pattern in place that could send prices to sub-2000. If bulls can manage to make a new high from here then the pattern would be eliminated but the pressure is now back on the bulls. Given the fact that it is summer time, it shouldn't come as a surprise if we see further downside ahead after a bounce. "Sell in May" has proven to be a good strategy so far again. Last but not least, the medium term trend and the short term trend are now solid red.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 12

The market retraced about half of its gains as expected and my assumption is a new bullish wave will come to challenge the 2120-2125 area next week. As I said yesterday, what happens at that level will be critical for the market. The SP500 has not done much this first half of the year and perhaps what happens in the next few weeks will point to the overall direction of the market for the rest of the year. I think a bigger correction would be healthy for the market given how long the LT trend has been bullish for (3+ years) but maybe it will go longer.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 11

The bounce wave followed the micro-count posted yesterday and made a higher high today, managing to turn the short term trend positive for the first time in weeks. My assumption is this bullish wave will be retraced and another bullish wave will come to challenge the 2120-2125 resistance area. What happens at that point will probably define the rest of the summer as that level could form the right shoulder of a bigger H&S with a target of well under the 200 DMA. If bulls manage to break through that resistance level then we should see a good rally to new all time highs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 10

The market rallied today towards the Trend Average and the 50 DMA as expected. Given the strength of the rally and the almost 3 weeks of selling, we could be seeing the beginning of a new rally to new highs or another rally to elevate prices and then sell off again to form a flat. The market is up just 1% this year vs 7% for the same period last year. So one could argue the market is either topping or buying time to rally in the second half of the year. The pressure remains on the bulls to make new highs and to turn all major trends to the bullish side. Failure to turn the TA positive will likely result in lower lows.

I ended buying oil again because of its pattern and I am still hoping for the rally in China to continue. The MSCI decided to include China shares in its benchmark in the near future but not immediately, so the next few days could be interesting. To me, China remains a no brainer so whether it gets to my target this month or next year it doesn't matter as I'm confident that market will eventually get there.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 9

The market made a lower low as expected before attempting a bounce in the morning. I see a bottoming pattern in place and we should see the Trend Average and the 50 DMA tested on this coming counter-rally as long as 2072 holds. My assumption is the correction will continue once the counter-rally is over as long as the market stays below the TA. Last but not least, the medium term trend is about to go bearish if the market fails to close above 2100 in the next few sessions.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 8

Waves were pointing to a counter-rally today until 2085 broke. So despite the fact these bearish waves lack an impulsive look to them, the fact is the market remains under the Trend Average and the 50 DMA. The next levels of support at 2067 and 2039 and the pressure is now on the bulls to reverse losses or risk seeing selling accelerate.

I am now just 10% away from my goal and tomorrow might be the day that will seal the deal for me. Tomorrow the MSCI will decide whether or not to include China A share in its tracking index, if they give a favorable view then China could easily rally another 10%. If they don't, I'll just be patient.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 5

The market attempted to break the 2085 support level I've been mentioning for a while but it failed to do so. And given the fact that it has taken 2 weeks for bears to reach this level, my assumption is there is a good chance a new rally coming to new all time highs. The trend continues to be bearish and we still could see support levels break next week, but given the all the zig zag waves and 2085 holding, maybe "Sell in May" will not last long this year.

I closed my VXX positions and now I'm just long China, which looks like it is breaking out. Maybe another global bullish period is coming in the next few weeks?

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.
 

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 4

The 50 DMA finally broke today after almost 2 weeks of bearish hesitation. However, there is a significant possibility this wave is just a C and unless the next level of support at 2085 breaks convincingly, we could see a new rally take place to another all time high. If the top is confirmed with follow through selling, we can then start working on possible downside targets. I am holding to my hedge but I'm closing it if selling doesn't accelerate. Also, I am hoping China will break out in the next few sessions after yesterday's 5% intraday dive that was erased in couple of hours.

This is my micro-count for China. I'm hoping a bullish 3rd materializes in the next few sessions and if I am right on this, there should be about a 14% upside, which will get me to my goal.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 3

The market failed to follow through on selling today and instead broke out of the descending trendline on the chart. While the short term trend continues to be bearish, these zig zagging waves are pointing to a correction of the larger bullish trend. So unless support breaks in the next bearish wave, chances are the markets are going to stage a rally to new all time highs. Fundamentally speaking, the focus is now on Greece and perhaps that will be the excuse the market will use to make a decisive move.

I am tempted to close my losing VXX position, specially if the 50 DMA holds on the next move. At least my China shares look like they are about to stage another break out, a 10-15% rise and I'm going to start locking in profits. That rally is probably not even half way done but it won't hurt to start position trading.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 2

The market sold off early morning as anticipated but the 50 DMA provided support for a substantial bounce. So far the last two attempts have not been able to break the 50 DMA and that in itself is not a good sign for bears. Also, the waves in the past few days don't have an impulsive look so we could be seeing more of a time/sideways correction before we see a break out to the upside. Still, the trend continues to be bearish and could see a Descending Triangle (which we haven't seen in ages), so the bias continues to be bearish but we need to see follow through selling pronto.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 1

The market staged a mild bounce today to test the TA and we could see a new round of selling in the next day or two if the market can not get past 2019. The next bearish wave needs to be convincing or buyers might come back again and drive the market to new all time highs again. It would be unusual for the market to  have a strong month (June is the 2nd worst month seasonally speaking) but we need to consider the possibilities.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.