Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 12

The market continued its bounce and was able to clear initial resistance at 2650, closing comfortably above it. However, this doesn't tell us much as to what will happen the rest of the month. I continue to assume prices will test the Trend Average or the 50 DMA before the next substantial move. If we see lots of selling at the test of the trend, this will be a sign traders are selling the rallies, which sets up the market for lower lows. Personally, I am tempted to sell and lock in profit but we'll see. Can't be greedy but can't too cautious either.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 9

Per my post a few days ago:

"I am assume the low at 2593 will be tested but ideally we should see the 200 DMA tested which at 2537. "

The market followed the count posted and bottomed at 2532 before mounting a strong counter-rally. I assume the  bounce will continue next week until we see a test of the Trend Average. If bulls are able to re-capture the TA, then maybe this is one of those one-wave corrections which we have seen several over the years. But if prices are not able to recapture the TA, then the market is in trouble and the 200 DMA will be re-visited again.This sell-off stands out as the one of the fastest in history but we could equally see one of the fastest rises in history if this ends up being a simple correction. So the best thing is to prepare for whatever is coming. I bought longs right around the 200 DMA and raised my stops to break even, I'll be ready to sell at the TA if I see any signs of hesitation. A lot of people are still scratching their heads over this sell-off but none of this was really a surprise by looking at the wave count. Actually, this sell-off has been predictable since it started last week.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 8

The market ended up below 2600 as I had been expecting and the real test will come at the 200 DMA. If the count is correct, we should see a strong bounce off the 200 DMA to possibly challenge yesterday's high at 2727. However, if the count I have posted is not correct, then we are looking at severe selling in a W3 that will go well below the 200 DMA and send the market into more than just a correction. Technically, prices are already in correction territory, what we haven't seen since 2009 is a bear market, defined as at least a 20% drop from the peak. I will go long if I see signs of a bottom around the 200 DMA. Many people continue to sound surprised at this drop, including Trump himself (who foolishly was taking credit for the recent rally). But this has never been about the President, it's about the economic cycles and the waves in which the market navigate.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 7

The market continued its bounce earlier today before giving up gains and we could see the resumption of the sell-off in the next day or two if the high today doesn't get breached.  I am assume the low at 2593 will be tested but ideally we should see the 200 DMA tested which at 2537. If we see this 5 count materialize, this could be the beginning of not just a correction but a bear market.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 6

Prices rebounded today after selling off substantially overnight in what I assume is a W4. So, if the count is right, we should see another leg to a lower low before a counter-rally to test the Trend Average. If prices are able to rally back up to the TA, then this will invalidate the 5 count and make this a zig zag correction within an uptrend.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 5

What a day. I think it's clear now that we have a W3 in place and there are much lower prices to come. Today's sell-off was the worst in 6 years, erasing all gains made in 2018 and some. While we don't know if the bull market that started in 2009 has finally topped, today's action raises the probability that it is all over for the bull market. I've been saying for months that there are enough waves to call the rally over and maybe what were are seeing it's just the beginning for a bear market that will send prices back to test the 1600 level. Obviously, too early to tell but we'll see.

Prices went through support and the 50 DMA like they were not there. But the next level of support is near the 200 DMA at 2530-2550 and we could see a dead cat bounce from there. Ultimately, a 5 wave count would be ideal of it found a floor at 2425.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 2

The market followed through on its bearish pattern as I had been expecting and we saw the biggest decline in almost 2 years. A lot of people in the financial media are trying to rationalize why the market is selling off despite the good numbers, but this shouldn't come as a surprise who reads this blog frequently. Now the question is whether the wave today is a W3 or a C wave. I think if we see selling acceleration early next week, then it will confirm a W3. But if prices are able to reverse today's losses, then we should be looking at a C and one more leg to new highs. The key level to watch is the Trend Average as it has proven to be a reliable indicator the great majority of the time. Personally, I'd like to see more downside so I can buy back the stocks I just sold but I am fine either way. Last but not least, support is at 2675-2690, but if that breaks then prices will head for 2600.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking