Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 2

The market did make a top yesterday as I had suspected and we saw prices sell off to the range mentioned yesterday. This was the strongest sell off in the market since June but this was expected so technically nobody should surprised. At the micro level, I see 5 waves finished at 2147 and a bottoming pattern in place so we could see a bounce towards the Trend Average as soon as tomorrow. Now, since I am counting this correction as a W4, there are several ways the market could evolve in the next few sessions. We could get some sort of Zig Zag to ultimately test the 2134 level, a flat or a one wave wonder where today's low was it. I ended going long in after hours with stops at today's low with the expectation of a counter-rally to test the TA where I might exit again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 1

A new all time high was made today as expected but it seems like the count completed last night in pre-market with a cash equivalent high of 2185 more or less. So unless prices are able to get past today's all time high, I favor a change of trend and a deeper correction to 2150's or 2134. I ended up selling in the morning for a small profit and now I am back to cash and waiting to buy around support or at the first sign of a bottom. I think Oil going below its 200 DMA creates a drag on equities in the near future but once that finds a bottom, stocks will rally along with it.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Beating the Market

Research has shown that the less than 1% of active traders are able to beat the market according to a study done by Brad Barber of UC Davis and Terrance Odean of UC Berkeley. We all know about people like Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch who have consistently beaten the market over the years but there is not a single technical trader known to do the same. With so many technical indicators and trading systems, we have to ask ourselves what is the use of all of this if none of them can beat buying and holding? After years of analyzing price patterns and workings on my trading system, I am ready to benchmark "Trending Waves" against the S&P500 to show if counting waves and using the Trend Average creates additional value. The planned launch date is January 1st, 2017 and it will consist of a single, non-leveraged or hedged position of SPY (S&P500 ETF). Which I will buy and sell using the system on this site. As the date approaches, I will elaborate more on the size of the position and how it will be evaluated.

Below are some articles that talks about the problem of beating the market.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/almost-no-one-can-beat-the-market-2013-10-25

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/03/12/why-smart-people-fail-to-beat-the-market/#293273b9444a

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 29

The market finally made a higher high today on what should be the beginning of the 5th wave. I am counting the micro waves today as a bullish nested 1-2 set up so prices must breakout early next week. I am raising my stop to 2163 and hopefully to slightly profitable on the breakout. I suppose traders will be using the weaker than expected GDP numbers as an excuse to rally since this translates into low rates for the foreseeable future. Where this gets interesting is what happens if the economy goes into a recession.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 28

Not much to add today other than it is now the 11th day of this sideways trading within a tight range. It's actually getting boring! I'm still long and hoping.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 27

The market managed again to test support and bounce again to make this the 10th consecutive session of bouncing around within a relatively tight range. I don't remember this long of a sideways move in years or ever for that matter. But I think it is safe to say a move out of range should come fairly soon. The close today is the first below the Trend Average since late June but this is a case of the market catching up to the TA and that normally indicates a time correction is finished or about to finish. So the market is ripe for another rally at this point, people who have been waiting to buy just need to make up their minds.

I almost got stopped out again today but prices bounced again off support. So I am hoping there will be a decisive move tomorrow or Friday so we don't go into the weekend in suspense.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 26

The market didn't do much today but a stronger move should come tomorrow. My stop on my long position almost triggered in the morning but prices bounced off support again and hopefully we will see a bullish break out from the recent sideways pattern tomorrow.  It's been 9 days since the market got to this level and there have been 7 bounces off support which should be enough of a base for a new bullish leg to rally from.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.