Beating the Market

Research has shown that the less than 1% of active traders are able to beat the market according to a study done by Brad Barber of UC Davis and Terrance Odean of UC Berkeley. We all know about people like Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch who have consistently beaten the market over the years but there is not a single technical trader known to do the same. With so many technical indicators and trading systems, we have to ask ourselves what is the use of all of this if none of them can beat buying and holding? After years of analyzing price patterns and workings on my trading system, I am ready to benchmark "Trending Waves" against the S&P500 to show if counting waves and using the Trend Average creates additional value. The planned launch date is January 1st, 2017 and it will consist of a single, non-leveraged or hedged position of SPY (S&P500 ETF). Which I will buy and sell using the system on this site. As the date approaches, I will elaborate more on the size of the position and how it will be evaluated.

Below are some articles that talks about the problem of beating the market.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/almost-no-one-can-beat-the-market-2013-10-25

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/03/12/why-smart-people-fail-to-beat-the-market/#293273b9444a

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 29

The market finally made a higher high today on what should be the beginning of the 5th wave. I am counting the micro waves today as a bullish nested 1-2 set up so prices must breakout early next week. I am raising my stop to 2163 and hopefully to slightly profitable on the breakout. I suppose traders will be using the weaker than expected GDP numbers as an excuse to rally since this translates into low rates for the foreseeable future. Where this gets interesting is what happens if the economy goes into a recession.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 28

Not much to add today other than it is now the 11th day of this sideways trading within a tight range. It's actually getting boring! I'm still long and hoping.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 27

The market managed again to test support and bounce again to make this the 10th consecutive session of bouncing around within a relatively tight range. I don't remember this long of a sideways move in years or ever for that matter. But I think it is safe to say a move out of range should come fairly soon. The close today is the first below the Trend Average since late June but this is a case of the market catching up to the TA and that normally indicates a time correction is finished or about to finish. So the market is ripe for another rally at this point, people who have been waiting to buy just need to make up their minds.

I almost got stopped out again today but prices bounced again off support. So I am hoping there will be a decisive move tomorrow or Friday so we don't go into the weekend in suspense.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 26

The market didn't do much today but a stronger move should come tomorrow. My stop on my long position almost triggered in the morning but prices bounced off support again and hopefully we will see a bullish break out from the recent sideways pattern tomorrow.  It's been 9 days since the market got to this level and there have been 7 bounces off support which should be enough of a base for a new bullish leg to rally from.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25

Prices failed to make a higher high today but there was a new all time high in pre-market trading and unless there is a lower low tomorrow, new all time highs are about to come. Once we get a substantial move higher then perhaps we will finally see a stronger sell off to test 2134 or 2159 if the top ends up much higher. I am going to go long right after this post in after-hours and use 2159 as my stop.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 22

The market rallied towards resistance as expected but was able to clear it and close the day marginally below its all time high. While a bearish pattern remains in place, a minor break of all time highs will signal the 5th micro-wave is still not done. I was tempted to short the market at resistance but looking at the impulsive look of the wave I refrained from it. I don't short impulsive waves or break outs, no need to be masochistic about it. The Trend Average has caught up with the market and we should see a stronger move fairly soon.

Lastly, I wanted to add that I watched the Donald speak last night. He is usually busy fighting or insulting people but he had a chance to speak to the public like a normal person. While I am no fan of Trump, I think he is going to do the unthinkable and win this election. He is a talented speaker and his delivery was effective. He is able to move the public with his populism and nationalism and since he is running against Hilary, it will be easy for him to portray her as a failure. So it looks like Trump will be getting the blame for the coming recession and mark my words it is coming sooner than later.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.