Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 12

The rally continued today without much of a retrace in what seems like a micro-w3. I assume a pullback to gap support will come in the next session or two so I can buy back my long position. The rally is being fueled by short covering and people buying the break out so this rally might go on for a while without a substantial correction, possibly to 2200+.

I started my calculation for the LT-W5 target and I am getting 2426 or 13% higher from current levels. I am assuming this LT-W5 will end up being a rising wedge. If the wave ends up being a regular impulsive wave, then I have 2722 or 27% higher. With that said, we have to keep in mind that 5th waves are free to end at anytime after the 3rd wave peak so one has to be particularly careful of support levels on this rally. Time wise, the ideal time frame would be a rally until summer 2017 or just in time to welcome the next mediocre President (both options are very mediocre imo, the worst I've seen in my adult life). I'm sure people will be blaming the next President for the next recession as most people are clueless of economic cycles but this should not come as a surprise to anyone who has been reading this blog for a while. So I hope people here can profit from this new rally and prepare for the coming bear market, which hopefully will retrace 50% of gains from 2009.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

All Time High

The market has finally made a new all time high and has now validated the Long Term Count I've used for the past 5 years. What's really interesting is how targets I've calculated were met or exceeded within reasonable a reasonable range, the most recent one being the LT-W4 prediction of 1820 which ended up being 1810. And now that we have the LT-W4 confirmed, I can work on a target for the LT-W5 that will conclude the entire bull market that started at 666 in 2009. The issue with 5th waves is that they can end anytime as long as there are 5 waves in place (which we do now) and seem to be affected by the length of its 3rd wave. So I'll work on it this week and see what numbers come up.

Not updated since 08/15 so it doesn't show this year's prices

 


I ended up selling my longs at 1.6 of micro W1 (which was the high today and the target for the Ascending Triangle) and looking to buy again on a test of 2134. I assume people who did not cover their shorts this morning will be doing so at gap support.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 8

The market has broken out of its Ascending Triangle pattern mentioned yesterday and ended the day challenging the market's all time high as expected. Once the ATH resistance is cleared, we should see short covering and new buying that will propel the rally much higher. And again, the excuse for today's rally was the jobs report but everything that is "news" was already reflected in the charts few weeks ago. So, unless there is some bearish miracle, prices are headed higher in the near future. That should convince bears to re-evaluate their sentiment and join in the rally.. not! lol.

I didn't get the chance to buy the break out as I was sleeping but I have my other long position, which stop has now been raised to a profitable 2109. I might end up buying more China instead as that is starting to look promising.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 7

The market challenged its most recent high earlier in the morning but couldn't get past resistance. Instead prices went into a minor correction and an Ascending Triangle pattern with a target of 2145 seems to be forming. So an all time high could occur in the next couple of sessions if prices succeed in breaking out of the pattern. I position traded my long position for a minor gain and looking to add more if there is a break out. I also raised my stop to 2090, so slightly above break even.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 6

The market continued to sell off earlier in the morning and tested the Trend Average as expected. However, loses were reversed for the rest of the day and a test of the 2050-2065 area doesn't look as likely anymore. Unless the pullback that started earlier this week turns into a complex correction, we could see prices headed for a bullish break out as soon as tomorrow. The excuse for today's turn around is the Feds holding on rising interest rates because of Brexit, which should not come as a surprise as Brexit is essentially a bullish event for the US stock market. As I stated here few weeks ago;

"My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish."

Anyway, I went 50% long after the market bounced off the Trend Average and set the stops at 2074. I will buy the rest once I see a clear micro-count evolve. Last but not least, China is starting to show signs of a break out so hopefully bullish momentum will continue in the next few weeks to confirm.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 5

Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend. The market completed the count I was following in pre-market hours and today we saw the expected correction. Arguably, this current pullback could still be a micro-w4 but I'll just assume the Trend Average will be tested in the next couple of days. Once gains are digested, the Inverse Head and Shoulder's pattern will be in place and it will be interesting to see its target of 2220 achieved. This might sound unthinkable to people who think this is a "bear market" but the pattern is there and the trends are supporting it.

I will be going long hopefully tomorrow or Thursday on a successful test of 2050-2065.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 1

The market has now rallied back to Pre-Brexit levels and this has created the potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulders. So a pullback to the 2050 level more or less gives a good clear risk/reward set up in the near future. Hopefully we'll see the correction sometime next week so I can buy a good amount. I am sticking to 2017 as my "retirement" year and if my business can maintain the current momentum until December in addition to some help from my trading account or my China long positions, then I will have achieved my goal by January 2017.

Have a great weekend and Happy 4th to those in the US!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.