Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 30

Last week I posted after the Brexit vote "Once people stop panicking (not us obviously since we've been anticipating this), the market will have corrected enough to launch a new rally to new all time highs". The market has continued to rally in a micro-w3 and looks like it has more to go before any significant correction. At the daily level, it is clear there is a trend reversal in place given the "three white soldiers" pattern. So unless there's some sort of bearish miracle in the works, there is a high chance this current wave is going towards a challenge to recent highs and perhaps the all time high at 2134. Once a new high is imminent, I'll be able to start working on a target for this last leg of the bull market that started in 2009.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 29

The counter rally continued today and I think we can safely say the bottom is in for the post-Brexit sell off. Obviously, this doesn't mean we can't see another zig zag develop but as of now, we have a zig zag complete from the 2120 high. A completion of the micro-count would solidify the bullish case and turn the Trend Average bullish again. I was hoping the lower end of the initial target for the correction was going to be tested but it did not. So I will be going long on the coming correction and use 1991 as the stop. The next intermediate wave could turn out to be a bullish W3 so this might be the last chance to get on board.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 28

The market staged a strong counter rally today by closing comfortably above its 200 DMA. Still, I wouldn't call this the end of the downtrend just yet until I see further evidence of a bottom. So far there seems to be a double bottom at 1991 but we need to see confirmation on the next pullback. If this level holds then we should see a rally to the Trend Average at the very least. I was hoping to see the 1950-1965 area so I could go long but I might end up using 1991 as my reference point instead to build my positions. If the market is able to recapture the Trend Average, we could see the initial stages of the next bullish leg to challenge all time highs. In fact, prices might not be this low for a while if all the trends go back to bullish. As I said a few weeks ago, Brexit provides the perfect excuse to leave interest rates as is and that provides the perfect excuse to rally the rest of the year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 27

Selling continued today and prices easily sliced through the 2025 and the 200 DMA support levels. The market found support in the equivalent area of Thursday night's after hours low but I favor further selling until the 1950-1965 support levels gets tested. I am still on the sidelines waiting to go long near support or if I see a bottoming pattern.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 24

Yesterday I posted "My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.".  Brexit won and the market reacted accordingly by plunging as much as 100+ points in pre-market before bouncing somewhat in the cash market. It's hard to tell if the pre-market low equivalent in cash will be revisited (2000) but there is still a favorable chance the 2020-2025 level will be tested. If that support level fails to hold, we might see selling until 1965. Once people stop panicking (not us obviously since we've been anticipating this), the market will have corrected enough to launch a new rally to new all time highs.

The exit of the UK from the EU should not have been that much of a shock in my opinion. Countries in Europe have clear differences that have made them nation-states for hundreds of years. The idea of taking sovereignty from these countries to form a Federal system has always been an ambitious experiment. Now the EU is like a table with three legs and some of the wealthier countries might follow the UK soon, especially if they see the UK survive the ordeal. I am sure there will be economic consequences but in the end the UK will be just like Switzerland. The Swiss have done well despite never joining the EU and seem content with their country as is.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23

The market rallied substantially today in anticipation of a favorable outcome to the Brexit vote. At the same time, there is now a 5 count completed from the 2050 low which implies a coming correction. While the market closed above the Trend Average, a bearish wave to the 2025 level would be ideal. Only if the market is able to go above 2120 will the short term bearish bias will be eliminated.

As of the time of this post, the "Brexit" side has a sizable early lead and equity futures are selling off. My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish.

I was checking on Zillow the price of my house and it has gone up almost 50% in 4 years. This would have never been possible had rates been at a normal level, instead these ultra low interest rates have fueled a rally in assets like homes and equities and unfortunately (or fortunately if you have been building capital) there will be a wake up call sooner than later. I think a good 50% correction from whenever the top is for the wave structure that started in 2009 would reset the currently artificially boosted market. Also, a good 25-35% correction in house prices would be great too as I'd like to buy a second home :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 22

The market challenged the 2100 high today but fell short of making a new high. One could interpret the micro-count as a flat, a truncated 5th, or a bearish 1-2 set up so reading waves doesn't do any good as far as trading set ups goes. However, we should get a clearer picture tomorrow on what the market is going to do next. What happens to the UK in regards to the EU will be the excuse to move prices either way.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.