Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 19

Sorry for the late update. I've been driving for most of the day to Northern California to meet friends and just didn't have the time. A 200 DMA test looks likely given today's lower lows and I think we should see the market start rallying fairly soon or start breaking down if a bearish pattern in place plays out. I'll elaborate more on that on the next update, it's time to go to sleep.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 18

The market couldn't make up its mind in today's volatile trading. A lower low was made at 2034 before bouncing to close the day even. Unless we see strong selling very soon, I think a new rally is about to come as many oscillators have reset. I ended up selling half my longs at the TA test but then stopped at break even on my other half during the sell off. I am looking to go long again if I see another favorable trade pattern.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 17

All the gains from yesterday were reversed in today's sell off. While the short term count is not clear given yesterday's 5 count invalidation, all these recent waves are pointing to a sideways correction and we could see the bull market resume at any moment as long as prices remain above the 50 DMA.  I initially wanted to go long at 2053 but decided to be patient and got in at 2045 instead with a short stop at 2039.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 16

The sell off was effectively stopped right at support and the bearish count has been eliminated. Most indicators pointed to lower prices at the end of last week but I guess there are plenty of buyers at the 50 DMA. We could see another bearish wave to test the 2045-2050 area again but it might just get to 2053 and head back up. So far this has been a time correction given the limited downside since the 2011 top almost 4 weeks ago. I will go long on the retrace and place stops at support.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 13

The sell off today puts a potential bearish 5 count in play. Prices closed right at support but the pattern looks bearish and the wave today could be a bearish W3 that could go right through support on Monday. Going by the length of what would be labeled a W1, a bearish 5 count targets 2007 or basically the 200 DMA at 2012. I wanted to go long yesterday before the bounce but given the pattern today, I will be waiting at the 200 to go long again.

Lastly, I was checking PE ratios last night and I noticed the PE for the S&P500 is at 23.6 which is higher than the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 is at 400+, with some claiming it is negative so it shows as "NA" on some financial sites. To put this into perspective, at the height of the "bubble" in China last year, its SP500 equivalent was 20 and its small cal was 250, now those PE numbers are down by half. So while I think the economy is doing fine, the market is expensive and one more crazy run to higher highs would set up the market for a reversion to the mean sell off. The mean is 15.50 or about 35% assuming lower than the current PE ratio. A quick calculation puts the SP500 at 1333 as the current mean for the market.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 12

The 5 count was invalidated today but the market found support right above the support layer I mentioned yesterday (2045-2050) and rallied back to the Trend Average. The short term bias remains bearish but if the low today (2053) holds, we will see a rally towards the 2100 level. If bears manage to breach support then a 200 DMA at 2012 test is almost certain. I was hoping for prices to reach the 2045-2050 band to lower my risk for a long position but unfortunately prices did not get that low.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 11

The rally was not able to follow through today and the micro 5 count posted looks like it could be invalidated. The wave today doesn't look right for a W4 but technically the count still has a chance of completing. If the market continues to sell off, there are several layers of support in the 2045-2050 area and could end up being another opportunity to go long with limited downside risk. I sold the rest of my longs at the TA as planned and will go long again if there is a good set up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.