Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 10

Couple of weeks ago I stated "If the current bearish wave turns out to be a C wave and it equals Ax1.618 in length, we will see a test of the the 50 DMA around 2040". Once tested, the bottom left a bullish pattern. "The close sets up a potential small Inverse and Head & Shoulders that targets 2080 more or less". And today the market rallied to 2084 in what potentially could turn into a bullish 5 wave count. While the count could be a zig zag and another "sell off" could come, I am leaning bullish because of the long term and medium term trend. Still, I am not getting greedy so I sold half my longs for a decent profit and raising my stops on the rest to the Trend Average level. If the current wave can make it to 2100, we could see a set up that will challenge the all time highs.

And speaking of ATH, it's been a year since the market made it to 2134. The bearish way to look at this is that the market is still in a topping process. The alternative, which sounds more reasonable to me is that these last 12 months has been a sideways/time correction and there is now enough of a base for a LT W5 to complete. So perhaps we will have a very bullish summer if bulls can finally gain traction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 9

Prices made a higher high today and remained range-bound for the rest of the session. We could see a bearish wave test the 2045-2048 support level in the next session or two  but ultimately we should see the Trend Average challenged sometime this week. This assuming the 2039 low stays intact for the time being.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 6

The market finally did a proper 50 DMA test today by going briefly under it before rising for most of the day. The close sets up a potential small Inverse and Head & Shoulders that targets 2080 more or less. Not sure if the multi-week correction is over yet but the bounce allows for a low risk trade. So I went long at the left shoulder level with the 2039 low as the stop.

It's currently hard to see an economic recession that will bring down the stock market given the current economic momentum and how low interest rates are. So maybe there will be one or two more years of good times? Someone actually just called me to offer me a 3.5% refi loan which I am going to take given how ridiculously low this is. In fact, instead of paying off my home loan as I originally was planning to do later this year, I might use that money and buy another house to rent out to wealthy techies or vacationers. Since our state deliberately passed legislation to raise minimum wages to $15 an hour (a 50% raise without any economic research apparently by our brilliant leftist state politicians), I predict rents will rise substantially among lower income areas which will indirectly push up all other areas. So owning real estate is a particularly good bet at this time. What most people don't get is that they are not getting a 50% raise in purchasing power, they're getting a nominal 50% raise that will translate into a spike in inflation. Anyone who is smart enough to hire people, is smart enough to pass on costs to consumers.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 5

There was a rally attempt early morning but gains faded by the end of the day. A couple of more corrective waves would effectively reset oscillators and set the market for another strong rally. But it's not clear yet if we will see just the 50 DMA tested or the support range between 1993-2020. 

My long position was stopped out at break even since I raised my stops to my buy price (perhaps prematurely). I'll try again when I see another lower risk/high reward set up. 
 
Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 4

Last week I stated "If the current bearish wave turns out to be a C wave and it equals Ax1.618 in length, we will see a test of the the 50 DMA around 2040". The 2045 low today technically tested the 50 DMA at 2040 and this might be as low as the market gets in the short term if the current wave is indeed a C. Also, this lower low completes the count I had been following since last week. However, I don't really like the way the 5 count looks despite being technically sound and it might be better to label it a zig zag. The alternative for that zig zag is a bearish 1-2 set up with a strong sell off ahead. I will be get in long with a stop at 5 points below the 50 DMA.

Now with Trump being the presumptive GOP nominee, I hope he will pick John Kasich as his VP. If he does that, at least he can persuade those that lean towards establishment Republicans to vote for him. It would also show that he is not as crazy as he sounds. He needs to win the Midwest to win the election.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map/index.html

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 3

The market gapped down this morning and struggled for the rest of the day. However, a lower low hasn't been made and the micro-5 count remains incomplete. What happens tomorrow could end up setting the tone for the next few weeks if the sell off accelerates. However, if the 2052.28 low remains in place then we will likely see the market rally again towards the recent 2111 high.

Lastly, I think it is now safe to say Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. If Republicans lose the election they will have no one to blame but themselves. One thing that is for sure is that Donald will be all out on Hilary and that will make this campaign one of the most entertaining ones ever. My prediction is if he manages to make Hilary angry (like he has done with Rubio and Cruz), Trump will have a shot. I think he is clown but at least he has tax plan I really like.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 2

The market bounced sharply today and came close to invalidating the bearish micro-count in place. The count looks out of proportion as it is but I'll continue to assume a lower low until the 2086 gets breached. If bulls are able to get past resistance and get to 2100, we could see a set up for a challenge to all time highs. I am hoping for more downside to get a good position but I might have to buy if there's a favorable pattern.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.