Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 20

I had issues with laptop so I couldn't add this update earlier. Basically, I was wrong on the top being 2104 as the market seems headed towards the next resistance level at 2116. There is a wedge like pattern in place so I'll assume prices are about to find a top in the next session or two. Oil has regained strength again and seems headed towards $50, so there will be enough of an excuse for equities to go for the ATH with or without a correction. I wonder how many people still believe this is a "bear market" at this point.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 19

As stated ast week "If we go by wave length, the ideal bottom would be around 2075-2077 before a W5 to challenge resistance at 2104". The count posted has followed the projected path more or less by bottoming at 2073 and possibly topping today at 2104. I'd like to see confirmation the 5 count is over by a test of the Trend Average in the next couple of sessions. However, if 2104 gets taken out then we could be seeing a sub-divided 5th that could reach much higher. As much as most people think the market is random or manipulated, the market tends to follow a path most of the time. I used the same calculation for this micro-W4 as I did for the LT-W4 target of 1820 last year for the LT chart and so far the recent 1810 bottom is looking increasingly like LT-W4.


For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 18

The market made a higher high as expected despite the sell off in oil last night. A challenge to the 2104 level would be ideal but technically speaking there is a 5th wave in place already and we could see a test of the rising Trend Average in the next few sessions. The main question is now where the market will make a deeper correction or if the correction to 2033 was the pullback for the entire structure from 1810. I ended up buying some VXX towards the EOD but I'll probably cover in a TA test of if the market gets past 2104. As I've been saying for the last couple of months, this could turn into a full rally (technically it has already) and one has to be very careful with short positions and specially if buying VXX.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 15

The market went into a correction that seems like a micro-W4 as expected and the bottom today was in the range I mentioned yesterday. So if all goes according to the count posted, we should see the 2104 resistance level challenged on a bullish leg early next week. The likelihood of the long term trend turning bullish is increasing by the day at these levels and bears basically need a miracle at this point to reverse all recent gains.

I am also posting the long term chart to add perspective of what the market is most likely doing. I haven't updated the labels since last year. Once there is confirmation for LT W5, I will make calculations on its target range.

Here is what this count looked like 3 years ago. Back then, most people were bearish and wave counters were waiting for a crash (which is basically the same as today). Nothing has changed, bears will always be blinded by pessimism and most will not be able to see a rally even when it's right in front of them. There's a saying in Spanish that goes "No hay peor ciego que el que no quiere ver" that sums it up, which translates into "There is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see".

Have a great weekend!

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 14

A higher high was made today as expected and it looks like there will be more to come after a micro-W4 correction. If we go by wave length, the ideal bottom would be around 2075-2077 before a W5 to challenge resistance at 2104. It's been almost a year since the market topped at 2134 and perhaps we will finally see new highs in the next few weeks. Personally, I am waiting for China's SSEC to start rallying hard again so I can get to my retirement on time :)

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 13

The market rallied past its most recent high and the only bearish pattern that was in place (Head and Shoulders) has now been invalidated. So now the bias turns bullish again and the wave that started at 2033 has a good chance of challenging the next resistance level at 2104. I am assume as the market goes higher more bears are going to throw in the towel and cover their short positions, which will only help the market go even higher.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 12

The market has rallied back above the Trend Average and this correction is starting to look like sideways consolidation as oscillators have been resetting. Still, lower lows would be ideal as it would create a good base for another rally to take place. But as I have been mentioning, strength in oil prevents equities from selling off substantially and oil's current momentum serves as a perfect excuse for a shallow pullback in stocks. I was hoping to see the 50 DMA (1980) tested but if this continues, the 200 DMA (2013) will be a more realistic target. I am glad I closed all my shorts and now I am just hoping to get in long on a good set up. I should add that most wave counters are expecting 1810 to be tested but not me as I see the long term trend with a good chance of turning bullish in the next 2-3 weeks.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.