Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 15

The market went into a correction that seems like a micro-W4 as expected and the bottom today was in the range I mentioned yesterday. So if all goes according to the count posted, we should see the 2104 resistance level challenged on a bullish leg early next week. The likelihood of the long term trend turning bullish is increasing by the day at these levels and bears basically need a miracle at this point to reverse all recent gains.

I am also posting the long term chart to add perspective of what the market is most likely doing. I haven't updated the labels since last year. Once there is confirmation for LT W5, I will make calculations on its target range.

Here is what this count looked like 3 years ago. Back then, most people were bearish and wave counters were waiting for a crash (which is basically the same as today). Nothing has changed, bears will always be blinded by pessimism and most will not be able to see a rally even when it's right in front of them. There's a saying in Spanish that goes "No hay peor ciego que el que no quiere ver" that sums it up, which translates into "There is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see".

Have a great weekend!

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 14

A higher high was made today as expected and it looks like there will be more to come after a micro-W4 correction. If we go by wave length, the ideal bottom would be around 2075-2077 before a W5 to challenge resistance at 2104. It's been almost a year since the market topped at 2134 and perhaps we will finally see new highs in the next few weeks. Personally, I am waiting for China's SSEC to start rallying hard again so I can get to my retirement on time :)

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 13

The market rallied past its most recent high and the only bearish pattern that was in place (Head and Shoulders) has now been invalidated. So now the bias turns bullish again and the wave that started at 2033 has a good chance of challenging the next resistance level at 2104. I am assume as the market goes higher more bears are going to throw in the towel and cover their short positions, which will only help the market go even higher.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 12

The market has rallied back above the Trend Average and this correction is starting to look like sideways consolidation as oscillators have been resetting. Still, lower lows would be ideal as it would create a good base for another rally to take place. But as I have been mentioning, strength in oil prevents equities from selling off substantially and oil's current momentum serves as a perfect excuse for a shallow pullback in stocks. I was hoping to see the 50 DMA (1980) tested but if this continues, the 200 DMA (2013) will be a more realistic target. I am glad I closed all my shorts and now I am just hoping to get in long on a good set up. I should add that most wave counters are expecting 1810 to be tested but not me as I see the long term trend with a good chance of turning bullish in the next 2-3 weeks.

For an more detailed analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com.


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 11

The market rallied early morning to challenge its Friday's high but ended up reversing despite the rally attempt. I mentioned last week oil was going to keep rallying (closed over $40 today) and strength in energy shares have probably prevented a stronger sell off. However, I favor continued downside to test and most likely break last week's low at 2033.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 8

The market counter-rallied today as I suspected and fell short of yesterday's high before heading back down and closing under the Trend Average. This close turns the short term trend bearish and this increases the chances of lower lows next week. With that said, oil has been rallying and this has provided an excuse for equity buyers to come out. Since there is a high possibility oil is headed back towards a test of its most recent high, it's hard to see how bearish momentum could gain speed while energy shares rally. Also, I found the bounce off the 2044 support a bit suspicious as this leaves a bullish set up going into next week. So I turned cautious towards the EOD and ended up closing the rest of my shorts to avoid any surprises on Monday. I'll re-short if resistance levels are tested again or go long on a test of the 200 DMA/2022.

Have a great weekend!

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 7

The sell off continued today as expected and the previous low was breached easily. There is now a head and shoulders pattern targeting 2011 and we could see more further downside tomorrow. The next support levels to watch is 2022 and the 200 DMA at 2015. A counter-rally from those levels could create an even bigger head and shoulders with a target in the mid 1900's or around the 50 DMA level. I ended up locking profits on half my shorts and will be riding the rest until a test of 2022 or the 200 DMA. I am also moving my stop to yesterday's high.

For an more elaborate analysis of the current wave please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com The current rally in equities and oil was called almost perfectly over a month ago on that site.


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.