Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 11

The market resumed selling today as expected and the 1812-1820 area I've been mentioning was challenged. There was a substantial bounce from the 1810 low today that could evolve into a full rally as long as 1810 doesn't get breached. Alternatively, if the more bearish option is in play, a rally that falls short of making 1881.60 would set up for the market for a strong sell off to the 1700's.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 10

The bearish 5 wave count was invalidated with today's higher high at 1882. However, selling is likely to resume tomorrow and the main question is whether 1828 will hold. The 'less bearish" wave pattern would have this wave bottom in the 1812-1820 area. But if this is a nested bearish 1-2 set up, then this is headed to 1737. I might go long to play the bounce to the TA at these support levels.

On the political front, the race for the nomination should start getting interesting from now on. It is still hard for me to think that Trump can win the presidency, much less the GOP nomination. But I guess you just can't underestimate Trump's ability to sell himself to the politically disillusioned crowd. In a way, I'd like to see Trump win to see how is he going to build a wall or "make America great again". I smell his BS all the way from this coast :) On the democratic side, they're both bad jokes. I'm actually baffled by the candidate choices on this electoral cycle. I guess the next presidency will fit well with the end of 5 waves from 2009 and a sustained correction and eventual recession.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 9

The bounce made a higher high today and was just a few points shorts of invalidating the potential bearish 5 wave count. But as long as 1872 doesn't get breached, there is a good chance of a lower low coming in the next session or two. Oil was down as much as 8% today and this could be used as an excuse for the markets to sell off. The bias continues to the downside.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 8

As stated last week "Given how this support level has been tested 4 times, any break could lead to a decisive move down.". The market was not able to hold above the 1872 neckline of the H&S and selling accelerated as expected. The market did manage to make a relative strong bounce but as long as 1872 doesn't get breached, there is a good chance of another sell off to another lower low. There is good support at 1812-1820 but if this level breaks, then we have the 1797 H&S target and ultimately significant support at 1737. Sentiment is obviously bearish but as I said on Friday, the economy is not. So we could see a strong turn around once extreme bearishness is reached.

Anyway, the stock market being bearish is not really big news as anyone on this blog should know the market has been on a downtrend for few weeks. What is news (at least to me) is the outcome of the Republican race for the nomination. After watching last week's debate, I've decided I will vote for Gov Christie or John Kasich if they end up winning the nomination. It's a long shot that either one will be able to beat the Donald or the ultra right-winger but I feel these two candidates are the most competent ones. Donald was surprisingly good at the last debate but it is still Trump! Cruz seems dishonest, on top of his ultra-right views. Carson is not winning and neither is Bush. And Rubio, the one that seemed like was going to get the establishment vote has turned out to be a robot. I don't think I've ever seen a presidential candidate do that bad in a debate. It's almost as if Rubio (despite his large ears) couldn't hear what Christie was saying, he kept repeating himself over and over on Obama and saying the same lines programmed into his brain over and over by his handlers. This is a must watch:

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/christie_assails_rubio_on_the_debate_stage.html

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 5

The market has followed through on its bearish pattern so far by reversing all the recent gains and testing the 1872 level again. Given how this support level has been tested 4 times, any break could lead to a decisive move down. At the same time, if buyers can keep 1872 from breaking then we'll see another rally attempt next week. After all, economic conditions are fairly positive and this helps profits. The unemployment report came in at under 5%, a first since 2008. Most importantly, wages are increasing while gas prices are at the lowest in years which is ideal for a service oriented economy like ours. So while the stock market might continue to correct, the economy is doing well and that's what really matters in the long term. Same goes for the other "concern" on the Chinese economy. They're actually doing well as they are now officially a service oriented economy, the first time in its modern history but not many in the media have paid attention as they continue to focus on manufacturing numbers instead of services. Maybe markets will start reflecting their economies once bears run out of momentum.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 4

The market made a higher high today but bullish momentum seems to be waning and we could see selling resume as soon as tomorrow. As long as the "Head" of the H&S at 1947 stays in place, the risk is to the downside. Perhaps the coming jobs report will be used as a catalyst to move the market out of range.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 3

The market bounced right off the 1872 support I mentioned yesterday and ended up closing the day comfortably above the Trend Average. However, the 1872.23 low today eliminates the possibility of an impulse count that had originated at 1872.70 a few days ago. So while on the surface the market appears bullish, the pattern is biased towards the bearish side. There is a head and shoulder's in place that targets 1797 and the only way we would see this pattern reversed is if the rally continues and breaks resistance at 1947.20. Seems like bulls haven't made up their minds yet.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.