Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 22

The market has been able to gather some bullish momentum and we should find out how sustainable the rally is next week. Oil has shot up more than 20% since its $26 bottom and continued stability in energy will help equities continue its rally. It's too bad I wasn't able to execute my long trade as I was waiting for $25 oil. But it's ok, I rather be conservative in counter-trend trades than risking the possibility of catching a falling knife. At least I'll get cheaper gas in the next few weeks :)

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 21

The counter-rally was able to continue today and it now seems like a bottom has been found. There is an Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 1978 and a clean break of 1900 would confirm this move. As I mentioned yesterday, oil finding a bottom was key to a rebound in equities and so far it looks like a bottom has been found in oil as well (oil is trading close to $30). With that said, the trend continues to be bearish and the market has a lot of rallying to do before reversing all the bearish damage done this month.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 20

The selling continued today after 1857 broke in pre-market and a bottom was found at 1812 before a substantial bounce. However, if 1878 is not reached on this bounce then there is room for one more leg down to a lower low. Considering oil got very close to the $25 level I've been mentioning, one more leg down to test the 2003 low would set up the market for a lower low.

I almost went long today but I rather do this only if oil tests $25 as I want to minimize as much risk as possible. If the bottom has been found already, we should see a rally to test the Trend Average in the next few sessions.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 19

The market continued its counter rally early morning before reversing gains towards the end of the day. There are enough waves for the market to start a stronger rally but if last week's low of 1857 is breached, then we could see selling continue in the next few sessions. I think oil is one of the main reasons for the sell off and now that $29.50 failed to hold, there is a good chance it is headed towards $25 (today it traded as low as $27.92). Once oil finds a bottom, then there is a better chance for equities to rally to its 50 DMA.

I continue to be on the sidelines and will buy oil or equities once I see a better sign of a sustained bottom.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 15

What seemed like the start of a sustainable counter-rally yesterday was completely reversed with today's sell off. The 1867-1871 level I've been mentioning was finally reached today but it failed to stop the bearish advance. So now we have a lower low at 1857 and the likelihood there will be more selling ahead. Unless what we saw today is an expanded flat, any counter-rally early next week that fails to take out 1934 will lead to lower lows.  I was planning to go long if support held but it did not, so I continue to stay on the sidelines.

The cause for the sell off seems to be energy related as the plunge in oil continues. If $29.50 fails to hold the sell off, it is likely the 2003 low of $25 will be tested. Saudi Arabia deliberately caused the fall in oil prices to drive out American shale oil out of business and they might just succeed in bankrupting many of these American companies. Once shale oil is out of the equation, we should see oil double in price as the demand is still there and continues to grow.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 14

The market bounced substantially today in what could be the beginning of a bigger counter-rally. However, I'd like to see the 1950 level or the Trend Average cleared before assuming further upside. If this rally is sustainable, we could see an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in the next few sessions.

Thanks to to all that played the lottery with me yesterday. One of the winning tickets was bought 30 miles from where I live and I can only imagine what that person must be going through right now. We'll give it another try next time the jackpot gets ridiculous again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 13

The market has continued to follow the posted wave count and today we had a lower low at 1886. There are enough waves to call the entire structure complete but there is a good chance the 1867-1871 level I've been mentioning will be tested. If a bottom is found around these levels, I expect a counter rally to test the rapidly down-trending Trend Average. I will play the bounce if support gets tested.

I am going to buy the winning $2 billion lottery ticket in couple of hours. I added the following numbers to the pool.

ST - 8 13 21 34 55 5
PD - 9, 14, 21, 45, 53, +8
Eddy - 8 21 30 36 65 PB 15
 

The odds of winning with a single ticket is 1 in 292 million. But given the group effort, the odds of winning is now a much better 1 in 19 million. Hopefully we will all be wealthier tomorrow :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.