Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 11

The market put in a lower low today at 1901 before bouncing back to close the day in positive territory. This despite the fact that oil fell to a new multi-year low of $31, which is a sign the market might stage a counter-rally very soon. Perhaps we will see a W4 like movement in the next few days and then another bearish wave to challenge the 1867-1871 area. What happens after all the negativity is gone is the big question. Fundamentals have not changed in the past weeks, just sentiment.

Now to regular visitors to this site, I am going to give you a chance to win $10 million dollars. Post 5 numbers from 1 to 69 and 1 number from 1 to 26. I am going to pool the numbers and play powerball on Wed. Maybe by Thursday we'll be a few million richer!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 8

What a week! The sell off has continued despite a bounce in China and what seemed like an extended 5th wave yesterday is looking like a 3rd wave. The next significant level of support and a nice level to play a bounce is the 1867-1871 area. However, there is still the possibility the selling is complete since oil is testing the $32 level as I speculated a few weeks ago and likely to produce a strong counter-rally to its 50 DMA.

The safest thing to do now is pay attention to the trend and stay with it until a low risk/high reward set up is found. I did however buy some Russian and Chinese H shares yesterday for my long term portfolio.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bearish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 7

The market put in a substantially lower low in what seems like either an extended 5th or a 3rd. Assuming we get a bounce tomorrow, we should get a better idea if there is more selling ahead or we are going to see a rally to the Trend Average. This substantial low makes it difficult for bulls to regain their relatively comfortable position in late December and opens up an opportunity for bears to take advantage of current sentiment. The reason for the sell off is again China which is suffering from retail investor (speculator is a more appropriate term) panic. This is the same crowd that went crazy buying earlier last year so the less the government intervenes, the better as the market will take care of the situation. One of the reasons I invested heavily in China years ago is because of these wild mood swings when it left very profitable companies trading at or even below book value. They currently are valued higher but still significantly below others in the world, so it's a matter of time before market value catches up with intrinsic value. As an example, the Bank of China (8th most profitable company in the world) trades at a PE of 4.5 vs Wells Fargo's PE of 12. Both banks earn about the same and the BOC actually grows faster and pays triple the yield at 7%+. This is why I am invested there in the long term despite all the manic-depressive swings and might buy more bank stocks if they continue to panic.

Anyway,  I haven't bought any shares yet but I will probably start buying Russian shares tomorrow for my long term portfolio and maybe play the bounce in the SP500.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 6

This young year has been interesting so far. First, we had the Islamists going against each other, then we got China selling off, oil at 7 year lows and now we have a man that wears high heels with an H- bomb.  If things keep going this way, we'll have the Donald as the President by the end of the year (not that Hillary would be all that great). We are living in interesting times.

Anyway, the count I've been posting seems have completed today with a lower low at 1979 and a counter-rally to test the Trend Average seems likely (assuming the 1979 low remains intact). And if bulls are not able to re-capture the TA on this attempt, the market might start setting up itself for a series of lower lows to test 2015's low point of 1867.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 5

The market continued its bounce today but it looks like a series of zig zags so we the bias is towards another sell off to a lower low. However, if 1989 holds then there is a good chance of a bottom. Once the wave is complete we should see a rally to test the Trend Average or even the 200 DMA at 2060. This sell off is unusual as it happened during a golden cross but bulls still have some time before the bigger downtrend is confirmed.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish


* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - January 4

Happy New Year!

It's amazing how time seems to accelerate as one gets older. It's 2016 and I remember back in 2010 the EW bearish crowd were expecting the DOW to be in triple digits by now (just off by couple of digits).  However, they also did predict a "bottom" in 2016 according to their moon/wave/voodoo cycles they follow, so maybe they might be right on that one.

http://discuss.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/263031.aspx 

The market had a horrible first day of the year, thanks in part to China's manufacturing PMI and the Iran-Saudi Arabia drama. The short term trend turned bearish with today's sell off and the daily MACD went negative as well but we'll see what the bullish response is the rest of the week. I am staying away from longs on the SP500 but I'll start to accumulate Russian shares and maybe some more Chinese shares. The whole thing in China continues to be overblown and misunderstood. The number I am really paying attention to is their service PMI which comes out Wednesday. Also, if Iran and Saudi Arabia go to blows, expect oil to shoot way up. Despite all the negative press Iran has gotten over the years, the source of all the terrorist ideology comes directly from Saudi Arabia. It's their second biggest export after oil actually. I never knew the difference between sects among Muslims up until recently, despite the fact of having Turkish and Iranian roommates over the years (I even dated an Iranian woman). But it's worth reading up on it as one can see what is what and how our governments are turning a blind eye to the actual source of Islamic terrorism for the sake of oil.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 30

Then market seems headed towards a test of the TA and possibly its most recent low at 2044. If that low remains intact, the set up would be bullish so I will be going long soon if the pattern materializes. If not, then we'll see if bears can go down to 2005 and break it.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish