Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 30

Then market seems headed towards a test of the TA and possibly its most recent low at 2044. If that low remains intact, the set up would be bullish so I will be going long soon if the pattern materializes. If not, then we'll see if bears can go down to 2005 and break it.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 29

The market managed to rally above its previous high and close comfortably above the TA. While EW doesn't provide a solid count yet, sustained trade above 2060 will turn all trends bullish in the next few days. Also, there is a bullish cross on the daily MACD, which is usually about 75% correct in predicting higher highs in multi-week frames. I was hoping to start building long positions above 2060 but since there was a gap, I will wait for a test of the most recent low to have a better risk/reward set up.

Also, here is a chart that illustrates the mixed picture of the market this year. Basically, energy dragged down the broader market but low oil prices ended up benefiting consumer oriented industries. In all, it looks balanced but as oil is getting closer to a bottom (it has fallen more than 60% from its peak last year), chances are energy is going to start making a come back while consumers will start enjoying wage growth due to inflation and low unemployment.  So this would call for a bullish 2016 based on net profit growth.  Assuming PE ratios will remain the same next year and we get a 3% GDP growth plus 3% inflation, my guess for the S&P 500 for 2016 is 2,250-2,300. Basically, about the same number I had projected last December for this year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 28

The Trend Average was tested today in what seems like part of a correction. We could see another leg to a lower low, maybe even test 2022 support and if that level can hold then there is a chance of a strong rally if the market keeps trading above the TA. Oil is the excuse for the selling today but anyone following oil can see there is a good chance is headed towards a test of $40, so we'll find out very soon if the SP500 can manage to be green for the year or be negative for the first time in 7 years.

I saw the Big Short movie over the weekend and it's interesting for the likes of us. I remember back in 2005-2006, I refused to buy a home because I just couldn't make sense of housing going up 20% per year while incomes where flat. I wasn't smart enough (as the guys in the movie) to find a way to short housing but at least I waited patiently to buy it at the bottom in 2011. Watching that movie made me realize we got off (as a country) relatively easy, as what happened then was enough to send us into a 1930's like depression. Now that 2016 is almost here, the economy seems to be doing relatively well but the big question is what will be the price of these abnormally low interest rates we've had for the past 7 years. It's almost too good to be true actually. My businesses have done very well is this economy and I am hoping I will pay off my mortgage before the next recession comes. I just hope it won't be until mid-2017 so I can have time to be completely debt free before the next downturn.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 24

Not really much to add today as I think any significant move will have to wait after the long holiday weekend. Plus I have to buy last minute gifts..

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 23

The market follow through on its rally and was able to turn its Trends bullish. Also, the close today is above the 50 and the 200 DMA, which incidentally just had a golden cross. Unless bears sell off strongly in the next week or two and make a low below 1993, the bias is now turning bullish on continued trade above 2060 level.

I will be going long on trade above 2060 after a correction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 22

The counter-rally gained momentum today and ended up challenging the Trend Average as stated yesterday. What happens in the new few sessions will probably set the tone for the next few weeks. A clean break of 1993 on a strong bearish wave will lead to a bigger sell off. However, a continued rally that is able to take out 2076 will likely challenge 2100 and eventually the all time high. I ended closing my longs for a minor profit and will jump in again if the market is able to gain traction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 21

The market staged a counter-rally today after testing last week's low in the morning. If the rally continues tomorrow then there's a good chance the Trend Average is going to be tested. What happens after the TA is tested in anyone's guess as the trend bias is bearish but this season is normally bullish. Whatever the case, I will be adding Russia to my portfolio this or next week. It's hard to ignore the dividends and how undervalued their companies are at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.